Compared with the beginning of May, the average price of DMF fell by 71.00% in the same period of last week, and the average price of DMF fell by 17.00% in the domestic market as of the beginning of May.

The domestic DMF market price fell sharply this week, with some manufacturers falling nearly 2000 yuan / ton per day. At present, the slow shipment and the reduction of new orders lead to high inventory pressure, dull purchasing atmosphere, normal operation of enterprises’ devices, and reduction of downstream demand. The focus of DMF market is not stable, and the price still fails to reach the ideal price in the downstream, so it is not ruled out to continue to decline There are some difficulties in high-level transaction.

The upstream methanol inventory is general, the shipment is fair, the mentality is stable, and the price is tentatively rising. At present, East China and South China have a small rise, and the price in Northeast China is stable.

On November 3, the chemical index was 806 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 20.67% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 34.78% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: the DMF market is currently running in a weak position, with a wide range of decline, and maintaining a downward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

In October, the market price of dimethyl ether rose first and then fell, and the difference between the beginning of the month and the end of the month was deduced as “temperature difference”. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on October 7 was 2556.67 yuan / ton, and that on October 31 was 2620.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.48% in the month and a decrease of 19.38% over the same period of last year.

Regional specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0%, October 30, 2500 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% Oct. 30 2620 yuan / T

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0%, 2540-2735 yuan / ton

The trend of dimethyl ether Market in October was divided into two stages. It was mainly up before October 20, and ended down below 20 days later, which was in obvious contrast with the beginning of the month. After the festival, dimethyl ether Market is on the rise. Due to the downstream demand for inventory after the festival, the overall market atmosphere is good, and in terms of cost, the raw material methanol goes up, which also brings some favorable support to the market. In October, the weather has cooled down significantly, especially in the northern region, and the overall demand for terminals has increased. Henan, the main production area, has stable supply, good shipment and low inventory pressure. Supported by multiple favorable conditions, the DME market continued to rise.

Then entered the short-term consolidation stage, international crude oil fell one after another, and the international market support was insufficient, which brought negative effects to the market. The market continued to rise in a lack of momentum, some fell, but the mentality of manufacturers is still strong, although there is a decline, but the range is not large, mainly horizontal finishing, some enterprises in Henan Province in the main production area, such as heart to heart, implement the minimum policy for two days. From October 18 to 20, xinlianxin raised 20 yuan / ton for three consecutive days. On October 18, it rose back to the price before falling, and on October 20, the ex factory price rose to 2690 yuan / ton. Henan, the main production area, rose overall, the production and sales of enterprises were balanced, and the inventory was mostly in a controllable state, and the trend was relatively strong.

Near the end of the month, dimethyl ether prices began to decline significantly on the 25th, and the market trading atmosphere turned lighter than the previous period. On October 24, Henan xinlianxin, BMW and other enterprises implemented the minimum guarantee policy, and some enterprises in Henan market in the main production area decreased slightly, but the shipment situation was not good. On the evening of 27, xinlianxin announced that the guaranteed price was 2660 yuan / ton, which was lower than that on the 25th, with the range of 30 yuan / ton. Subsequently, most enterprises in Henan Province followed the decline, and only a few enterprises had a strong mentality. Hebei and Shandong regional market by the main production area fell, followed by the main decline. Due to the lack of good support in the market, the center of gravity is constantly moving down, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and most of them just need to purchase. The market ended in October with a fall.

The cost methanol market rose first and then fell in October, and the increase was greater than the decline in the month, which brought strong support to the dimethyl ether Market. But at the end of the same month, the end of the decline in methanol, short-term to the market to bring limited. Moreover, the international crude oil and civil gas markets are weak one after another, bringing some pressure to the dimethyl ether Market. The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, and manufacturers’ inventory pressure is increasing. However, as the weather continues to cool down in November, the terminal demand is still expected to improve. In the future, the DME market may fall first and then rise in November.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (November 2): 312.50 yuan / ton

On November 2, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong increased by 7.50 yuan / ton compared with the quotation on October 30. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream is high consolidation, which brings certain support to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the maintenance of enterprises has increased recently, the supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid still impacts the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is greater.

Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 320 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on October 26 was 580 yuan / ton, and that on October 30 was 583 yuan / ton, which was 0.59% higher this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of domestic coking grade ammonium sulfate rose slightly. The market of ammonium sulfate is stable. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 480-540 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 540-570 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Province is 450-490 yuan, and that of Northeast China is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of compound fertilizer is stable. Compound fertilizer raw materials continue to rise, cost support is favorable. Compound fertilizer enterprises actively explore the rise, the price of a small increase, later stable rise.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate small adjustment, demand side weakened, manufacturers supply sufficient. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in Hexi is general, and it is mainly from port. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will operate in a narrow range in the short term, and the internal ammonium sulfate will mainly run smoothly.

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 29 was 43.96, down 1.3 points compared with yesterday, 56.04% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 61.14% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend from October 2017 to October 2020

As shown in Figure 2, in October, natural rubber futures and spot prices were on the way, and surged up sharply in the last week, and fluctuated and retreated near the end of the month. Shanghai Rubber: Shanghai Rubber rose strongly in the opening session, with easy trading. The January contract month closed at 15680 yuan / ton, rose 935 yuan / ton on the 28th, and nearly 1000 yuan within the day. On the 29th, it had a slight correction. On the 30th, it rose first and then fell sharply, especially the 11th contract fell by more than 700 points. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 14495 yuan / ton on the 30th, with an increase of 22.92% this month,. Among them, 11792.5 yuan / ton on the first day was the lowest price of this month, while the mainstream quotation of 15262 yuan / ton on the 28th was the highest price of this month, with a maximum increase of 29.43% in the month, reaching a new high in recent three years since October 2017.

According to the survey conducted by business agencies, the tapping situation in Hainan and Yunnan, the main production areas of domestic rubber, is different. Hainan is suffering from continuous typhoons. Typhoon No.16 and No.17 have passed, typhoon No.18 is at the right time, and typhoon No.19 and No.20 are on the road. The strong wind and rain weather has seriously affected the production of Xinjiao. The weather in Yunnan is normal. Although the temperature is lower than that in previous years, tapping is normal. Because the rubber price has been rising for many days, and the price has reached the peak in two years, the long silent high price has boosted the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. After the latex is sent to the factory, there is not much work shipment, and the price is high. At present, the rubber price is at a high level, the market transaction is not much, and the price adjustment is frequent. Some of them are bullish and do not cover the market Out.

From the perspective of major global producers, the weather, epidemic situation and lack of labor have affected the supply of new gum seriously. Therefore, it is inevitable and certain to reduce the production of natural rubber. According to the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s gum output was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a month on month increase of 11.4%. From January to September, the total output of natural rubber was 426.5 thousand tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%. The annual production reduction is no longer a suspense, and the statistical data are very obvious. To make matters worse, many Southeast Asian countries are also suffering from typhoon and heavy rainfall, which has seriously affected the output of new rubber. Meanwhile, the rubber farmers and market traders are unable to cover their plate, which leads to the continuous rise of prices. According to Thailand on October 28, Nakorn tangavirapat, director of Thailand’s rubber administration, said that rubber production was reduced due to typhoon Sadr and heavy rainfall, and merchants and farmers hoarded rubber for profit, which made rubber price rise to 72 baht per kilogram in a week. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 80 baht / kg and affect the delivery of rubber futures.

In sharp contrast to this decrease in supply, the demand of downstream tire enterprises increased and the operating rate stabilized at more than 70%. For example, in Shandong Province, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 75.32%, slightly increased by 0.63% compared with last week and increased by 9.92% compared with the same period last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. Customs data show that in September, China’s tire export volume maintained double growth on the same month, and the foreign trade export situation was better. In addition, China’s economy has gradually recovered, and automobile production and sales are in large volume. In September, China’s automobile production and sales increased by 19.1% and 17.4% month on month, 14.1% and 12.8% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, tire production increased greatly. Domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum, and demand stimulation supported rubber price rise. At the same time, rubber price rose, increasing tire enterprises This month, Guizhou tire, aoles tire, Wanli tire, Fengshen tire, Shandong Zhongchuang tire, Fangxing rubber and other companies announced to adjust their tire product prices in October and November, with an increase range of 2-4%.

However, a strong contrast with the favorable fundamentals of natural rubber is the current external economic environment. At present, the epidemic situation in European countries is rapidly rebounding, Germany and France are once again closed down, and the epidemic situation in other countries is not optimistic. At the same time, the US election is imminent, and the situation is turbulent. The foreign economic environment is bound to lead to a serious impact on the export situation of China’s enterprises, and most industries have recovered slowly so far 。 Fortunately, China’s economic recovery has led to an increasing demand for commodities, and the demand for natural rubber has supported the rapid rise in the prices of rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia. Of course, the increase in the price of natural rubber is also supported by the increased demand for gloves triggered by the epidemic.

To sum up, the current situation of natural rubber production reduction at home and abroad will continue under the recent typhoon and heavy rainfall; the impact of the external economic environment, especially the large fluctuation of crude oil in recent days, has a very direct impact on the commodity trend; at the same time, the large fluctuation of natural rubber in the second half of the week has a greater impact on the stock of trade links, and the quotation of natural rubber traders is difficult, and the price changes frequently Some trade quotations have been suspended. In the near future, there is still a great possibility that the trend of natural rubber will temporarily change or stop. However, the price of natural rubber is strongly supported by the production reduction, and it is more likely that the natural rubber will rise again in the later period.