1、 Price data

Trend chart of average price of domestic 93# gasoline distribution

Trend chart of domestic 0 × diesel distribution average price

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel fell sharply this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 5202 yuan / ton, down 9.99% compared with that of last week; the price of domestic diesel was 5389 yuan / ton, down 8.29% compared with that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: crude oil futures prices continue to fall sharply, the product oil market is passive, the demand brought by the resumption of domestic enterprises has no obvious boosting effect, and the product oil market price is dragged down by crude oil prices.

Industrial chain: since the OPEC + conference, Saudi Arabia has been releasing the news of a substantial increase in production, and Russia has actively responded to the war to increase production. Although U.S. President trump said that he would intervene in the oil price dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the right time, and the international oil price rebounded in retaliation, as of 15:00 on the 20th, WTI crude oil price was 27.5 US dollars / barrel, and WTI crude oil futures still fell 16%.

Market: at 24:00 on the 17th, the price of domestic gas and diesel oil dropped by 1015 yuan and 975 yuan per ton respectively, the biggest drop in a decade, and fell to the floor price. Although the domestic situation has further improved, the demand for gasoline and diesel has gradually increased, and the demand just increased, but the drop in crude oil has dragged down, and the intermediate traders and downstream customers mainly spend more time waiting, while the purchase and stock up operations have decreased. In the context of the sharp decline in crude oil, the price of domestic refined oil market is mainly declining.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: Although crude oil rebounds substantially, global crude oil demand is still shrinking, and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has no turning point at present, and the market of refined oil is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the market price of refined oil will maintain a low operation in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of activated carbon is 11183 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is stable but weak. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the price of domestic activated carbon is mainly to maintain stability, with individual price adjustment, and the market atmosphere is still cold.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy promotes the activated carbon market. The downstream factories purchase goods according to the demand, and the market transaction is light.

Forecast: due to the impact of logistics, the supply of activated carbon is cold, and it is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

On March 16, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, with the main contract at 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $31.69/barrel, down $3.75 (- 10.58%). The deterioration of the global epidemic in recent days has intensified people’s blockade measures against the government to curb the spread of the epidemic, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, and then aggravate the general concerns of market people about the global economic recession. On Monday, Saudi Arabia reiterated its production increase plan with a clear attitude, which made the market worse.

On the macro level, on Monday, the global stock market was in a state of mourning. Following the sharp fall of the Asian and European stock markets, the US stock market opened sharply lower. In a few minutes, the S & P 500 index fell below 7%, triggering the third circuit breaker this month. After the resumption of trading, the US stock market fell further rapidly. The decline of the three major stock indexes was once more than 10%, and the Dow index fell more than 12%. The increased risk of the US economic recession has triggered a general bearish atmosphere in the market. Some market participants predict that the US economy will grow by 0.4% in 2020, lower than the previous growth estimate of 1.2%. The trampling down of risk assets will naturally bear the brunt of the crude oil market.

At present, the main negative crude oil factor in the market is still the spread and deterioration of the epidemic. Up to now, the coronavirus epidemic has caused at least 174000 people to be infected, about 6700 people died, and the global economy has fallen into a depression. At present, especially in Europe and the United States, the epidemic situation has expanded. More and more countries have taken blockade measures, which has severely hit the fields of aviation, transportation, etc., and the demand for crude oil is expected to drop significantly Wen, especially now, has caused oil prices to fall by 50% since the beginning of the year. As the epidemic has disrupted business activities, travel and daily life, many forecasting agencies have also lowered their forecasts for crude oil demand, and the current forecast indicators have been continuously restored.

At present, the risk of the supply side is also further negative for oil prices. Saudi Arabia National Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) reiterated on Monday that it plans to increase production to a record level to occupy a larger share of the global oil market. Saudi Arabia has a clear attitude to increase production. Moreover, according to relevant consumption, the technical meeting of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries planned to be held in Vienna on Wednesday has been cancelled. Saudi Arabia and Russia has not achieved further effective communication, which may lead to a huge increase in supply of Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries, bringing a huge surplus to the global crude oil market. As a result, the pace of crude oil downward is intensified.

According to the business club, at present, the crude oil market is suffering from bad news, and both the supply side and the demand side tend to suffer from bad oil prices. The risk of global financial market is increasing, and the price of risk assets is declining. At present, many countries around the world have launched monetary easing policies, especially the interest rate of the Federal Reserve has dropped to a super level of 0-0.25, and there is no room for further easing in the later stage, which has defeated market confidence As the marginal benefit decreases, the role of interest rate reduction becomes smaller and smaller; moreover, due to the resonance effect of Saudi Arabia’s production increase and the expected decline in demand brought by the epidemic, it is expected that the medium and short-term crude oil will still hover at a low level, which does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1962 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1842 yuan / ton, down 6.11% in the week, 8.10% on month, 27.52% on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: affected by the collapse of international crude oil futures, the main methanol contract ma2005 of zhengshangsuo fell and stopped, and the methanol spot price in East China kept linkage with it, and the market in East China, South China and other places fell sharply. In the first half of the week, methanol in the mainland was mostly on the sidelines. With the port falling sharply, the price in the mainland was also loose, and Shandong, North China, central China and other places were in decline. Enterprises in the main production areas had limited offers, and more contracts were executed.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in shock. Local enterprises started to work one after another, and the overall market supply increased. However, due to the lower fluctuation of upstream methanol market, the lower production cost of formaldehyde enterprises, and the weak follow-up of downstream market demand, the formaldehyde Market in many places gradually declined, and the overall transaction was relatively common.

Acetic acid: after the industry started to improve, the spot supply in the domestic acetic acid market continued to increase, the stock pressure of enterprises in Shandong and Henan gradually increased, and the passive price adjustment competition for shipment dominated, driving the transaction in the East China market to decline one after another. In the North China market, the main downstream chloroacetic acid starts on a low level, and the substantial market demand is weak. Under the situation that some peripheral low-cost goods sources impact the North China market, the local suppliers have a passive phase decline, and this week’s decline is relatively small.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price continued to decline. Most of the mainstream enterprises in the main production areas of Henan province carry out the minimum guarantee policy, and their centers announce the settlement price of 2770 yuan / ton of spot exchange to leave the factory. There is preferential space for actual transactions. Due to the impact of international health events, the price of crude oil has been greatly reduced, which has affected the price of liquefied gas. The continuous decline of price has led to a poor attitude of trade procurement, indirectly affecting the sales of dimethyl ether.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: on the positive side, with the warmer weather, the demand for traditional downstream formaldehyde and other products has improved; at present, the price of coal to methanol in the north is near the cost line, with some losses; this week, the price of methanol fell too fast, and the number of customers with market intention to copy the bottom has increased. On the negative side, overseas public security emergencies have raised market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market is weak, and market participants are worried about it. At present, the domestic methanol supply is on the increase, with the operating rate rising to over 72%. The port inventory is on the rise again. After Iran’s gas limit is eased, the methanol production is increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. At present, the external information is short, which is unfavorable to the future trend, thus affecting the methanol trend of the port; in addition, with the increase of external market arrival, the methanol port inventory shows an increasing trend, and the methanol storage capacity is tense. The methanol supply and demand pressure in the mainland, the methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the methanol market in some regions would mainly supplement the decline trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of March 3, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data was 18066 yuan / ton, down 933 yuan / ton or 4.91% compared with the beginning of March.

2、 Market analysis

Product: since the beginning of March, the overall weakness of organosilicon DMC market has been running low. With the slowdown of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has been steadily rising, and the terminal resumption has been carried out recently. However, downstream enterprises have been cautious in the preparation of upstream raw materials. Although the operating rate of monomer factories has been controlled all the time, the current operating rate is about 60%, but since last week, the quotations of some manufacturers have been reduced by 300-1000 yuan / ton No, the market price stabilization mentality has basically collapsed, and manufacturers have begun to show a low price bidding mode. This week, the quotation of organosilicon DMC is generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton again. At present, the mainstream quotation of DMC is around 17800-18500 yuan / ton, and the lowest quotation has reached 17000 yuan / ton (net water spot exchange). In order to stimulate the shipment, the actual transactions have been explored one after another, and the actual transactions of some large households yield more profits. However, the downstream stock up is not very active, most of them are cautious to wait and see, and the terminal market has not been fully opened. At present, the overall operating rate of single plant has declined again. During the shutdown of Tangshan Sanyou, Hubei Xingfa and Shandong Jinling units, it is understood that Zhejiang Hesheng will also stop for maintenance this weekend, and the operating rate of most other single plants is about 60%.

Industry chain: at present, the terminal demand has not been fully released, the demand for silicone oil and 107 rubber products is still low, the market has not fully recovered, and it is unable to stimulate the expansion of 107 rubber trading volume in a short term. At present, the quotation of 107 rubber market in China has been reduced sporadically, the resumption of terminal work is slow, and the market as a whole is weak. The quotation of raw rubber market is stable and slightly reduced. At present, the market just needs to purchase. At present, the silicone oil market maintains stable operation. With the orderly recovery of logistics, the market gradually recovers. Under the weakening of cost support, the downstream risk averse procurement is on demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of the business club, it is expected that in the near future, in order to stimulate the delivery of goods, the quotation adjustment may be more frequent, and the downstream manufacturers may also be ready to stock up at any time while waiting. The market also needs to pay more attention to the downstream demand and the adjustment of the manufacturers’ commencement.