I. Overall Trend

This week (6.24-6.28) polyethylene showed a stop-fall and rise. The average price of LDPE 2426H in East China monitored by business associations was about 8312.5 yuan/ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8900 yuan/ton; and the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7900 yuan/ton. As of June 28, the prices of LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing this week. LDPE prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week.

On June 28, the LLDPE commodity index was 75.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.64% from its peak of 117.56 points in the cycle (2013-12-11), and up 2.16% from its low of 74.06 points on June 20, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

On June 28, the LDPE commodity index was 64.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.92% from 113.33 points in the cycle (2013-12-08), and up 0.61% from 64.30 points on June 26, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

On June 28, the HDPE commodity index was 72.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.50% from the peak of 102.33 points in the cycle (2014-07-24), and up 1.14% from the low of 71.33 points on June 24, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Upstream: International oil prices are rising this week. WTI crude oil August futures settled at $57.90 a barrel on Monday (June 24), up $0.47 from the previous trading day, trading range $56.75-58.22; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $64.86 a barrel, down $0.34 from the previous trading day, trading range $64.08-65.79. On Thursday (June 27), WTI crude oil August futures settled at $59.43 a barrel, up $0.05 from the previous trading day, trading range $58.60-59.72; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $66.55 a barrel, up $0.06 from the previous trading day, trading range $65.63-66.82.

The rise of futures and crude oil boosted the market. Petrochemical raised some ex-factory prices, and the market rose first and then stabilized. Traders are experiencing a rise, downstream factories are more enthusiastic about entering the market, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, end users often maintain just need to replenish. The difficulty remains.

In May 2019, PE imports amounted to about 1.419 million tons, of which LLDPE imports amounted to 433,300 tons; HDPE imports amounted to 675,100 tons; LDPE imports amounted to 309,700 tons; PE exports in May 2019 amounted to 25,300 tons.

Manufacturer dynamics: this week, agricultural film dealers are cautious in placing orders, mainly in need, manufacturers have limited order accumulation, a few manufacturers maintain low start-up, but some manufacturers are still in the state of shutdown maintenance. Functional film demand continued to be weak, sunlight film demand increased compared with the previous period, the start-up of manufacturers slightly improved, the start-up rate maintained at about 20%. With the end of plastic film demand, the manufacturer gradually shut down.

Futures Trend: On June 28, the main contract of polyethylene futures L1909 opened at 7835, the highest price 7885, the lowest price 7770, the closing price 7830, the pre-settlement price 7895, the settlement price 7825, down 65, 0.52%, the volume 447940, the position 651914, the daily increase of 4608. (Quote unit: yuan/ton)

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 25th week (6.24-6.28) of 2019, there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of rubber and plastic plate. The top three commodities were PET (2.63%), ABS (1.52%) and LLDPE (1.28%). There are six kinds of products with ring-to-ring ratio declining. The products with the first three declining ranges are styrene-butadiene rubber (-3.19%), natural rubber (-2.29%) and cis-butadiene rubber (-2.24%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.14%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking forward to the future, business analysts believe that futures have rebounded, boosting the market. Petrochemical stocks are mostly maintained at a low median level, with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the future market will be strong in the short term.

On June 27, the fluorite commodity index was 107.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.37% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 119.24% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen slightly, with an average price of 3,100 yuan/ton as of 27 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has recently risen. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market is on demand. The trend is rising. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 27 days, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 27 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12040 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

On June 25, the fluorite commodity index was 107.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.37% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 119.24% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen slightly. The average domestic fluorite price is 3100 yuan/ton by the 26th day. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants have started to operate normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 26 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12040 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’big list, the domestic TDI market price rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 1250.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average market price was 12566.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, it fell by 0.53%, 58.53% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the TDI market in eastern China is mainly consolidated and operated, with a slight increase in price trend, a light inquiry atmosphere on the spot, a sluggish real order transaction, and accompanying market shipments. Up to 21 days, China’s domestic goods with tickets are quoted near 12700 yuan/ton, Shanghai’s goods with tickets are quoted at 12700-12900 yuan/ton, South China’s domestic goods with tickets are quoted at 12600-12800 yuan/ton, Shanghai’s goods with tickets are quoted at 12800-13000 yuan/ton, North China’s domestic goods with tickets are quoted at 12600-12700 yuan/ton, and Shanghai’s goods with tickets are quoted at 12600-12700 yuan/ton. Reference 12800-12900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the price trend of nitric acid in the upstream of domestic TDI is stable, and the market price is about 1783.33 yuan/ton. The supply of nitric acid is not large, the quotation of manufacturers is stable, and the nitric acid is in good condition. Domestic toluene prices continued to rise this week, with an average of 5,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5,075 yuan/ton on Friday, a 1.50% increase in the week. Rising raw material prices in the upstream have a negative impact on downstream TDI.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, at present, the domestic TDI market is consolidating and running, the inquiry trading on the spot is still in a low ebb, the actual single transaction is scarce, the low expectation of the operators is not big, and the buyers and sellers are deadlocked and wait-and-see. It is expected that the TDI market will be sorted out in the later period.

On June 24, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.59% from the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and up 33.79% from the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 24th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas have been forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic price of nitric acid has been stable. The market price of nitric acid is 1760 yuan/ton on the 24th day. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream has slightly declined. As of the 24th, the price of manufacturer in the northern region has been maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 290-3000 yuan/ton. The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.