According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the price of 1 # lead was 17075 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 0.29% compared to the lead price of 17025 yuan/ton on September 15th.
This week’s market analysis
In terms of futures, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. As of the close, the contract price was 17150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to last weekend’s closing price of 17040 yuan/ton, with a rate of increase of 0.65%. As for the spot market, compared to last week, the overall trading activity has remained stable, and there have been no obvious unilateral driving factors.
supply side
This week, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters has slightly decreased compared to last week. Among them, a smelting plant in Henan Province is currently in a state of production reduction and is expected to resume production by the end of September; However, smelters in Yunnan and Hunan regions have maintained stable production without significant changes. A smelter in North China completed maintenance and resumed production this week, while a smelter in East China plans to shut down for maintenance in the fourth quarter. As a result, production was slightly increased in September to ensure the supply of some long-term orders.
Recycled lead is currently facing three major bottlenecks: the continuous increase in environmental supervision, the obstruction of the waste battery recycling system, and the high cost and premium of raw material procurement. These factors collectively constrain the effective release of production capacity, resulting in the overall operating rate of the industry remaining below the historical average level. According to industry monitoring data, the operating rate of recycled lead production enterprises has shown a significant decline in recent times.
demand side
The weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the impact of tariff policies and factors such as the domestic and international price ratio of lead, which have led to a decrease in export orders for some automotive battery enterprises, thereby prompting these enterprises to reduce the operating rate of their production lines.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the price of lead in the market has shown a strong trend. Considering that the supply of domestic lead ingots may increase, and with the approaching National Day holiday, downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers may choose to increase their inventory reserves before the holiday. Overall, there are both positive and negative factors in the current market, and it is expected that lead prices will maintain a high volatility trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (9.15-9.19), with an average market price of 273480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 269330 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 1.52%.
This week, tin prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend. As of the close on Friday (September 19th), the price of the main contract for Shanghai tin was fixed at 268770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5180 yuan/ton or 1.89% compared to last weekend’s closing price.
This week, the tin spot basis showed a significant fluctuation trend, while the domestic market continued to maintain a stable upward trend. During the mid week period, although the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, it also released hawkish signals, leading to a significant cooling of market risk appetite. In this context, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and downstream purchasing behavior is mostly dominated by rigid demand, with limited acceptance of prices.
Due to continuous supply side restrictions, the resumption of production in Myanmar, an important global tin ore supplier, has been slow, and the actual ore output has not yet reached the market’s expected level. As a result, the global refined tin market has long been in a state of supply shortage. On the raw material side, rigid constraints and the maintenance plans of most smelters in major domestic production areas have jointly led to a significant decrease in smelting operating rates. At present, the total operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is still at a historically low level. In addition, the processing fee for tin concentrate remained stable this week.
On the demand side, although we have entered the traditional peak season for tin consumption, the overall situation in the traditional consumption sector is still sluggish, and the recovery of terminal demand is relatively limited. Specifically, the demand for tin plated sheets, tin chemical products, and other related products has remained stable overall, with no obvious signs of growth. In contrast, emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics continue to develop rapidly and have become the main driving force behind the growth of tin demand.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that the tin market will continue its weak supply and demand trend next week, and tin prices will show a fluctuating adjustment trend. The rigid constraint factor on the raw material side remains the key to supporting tin prices, while the overall demand situation is still relatively weak despite the driving force of emerging fields on the demand side.

Cobalt prices have seen consecutive increases this week
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 22 was 278100 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.13% compared to the cobalt price of 272300 yuan/ton on September 17. The introduction of quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to a decrease in the expected supply of cobalt in the international market, resulting in a fluctuating rise in cobalt prices.
Congo introduces quota system
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country will end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th and implement an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. The agency stated in a statement that mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of this year, with a maximum annual export volume of 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027. Quotas will be allocated based on the proportion of the company’s historical export volume and will be notified to all companies. The implementation of a cobalt export quota system has led to a significant decrease from the nearly 250000 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, and the shortage of supply in the cobalt market will be the main trend in the coming years.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a shortage of supply in the cobalt market over the next three years, increasing the driving force for cobalt price increases. Supply shortage and stable demand are expected, and cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend for a long time in the future. However, the increase in cobalt prices is not optimistic. The rise in cobalt prices will stimulate the market to find alternatives. The production of Indonesian cobalt wet process projects continues to increase, making up for the supply shortage in the cobalt market. New batteries will be launched in the market, and in the future, they will seize the demand in the cobalt market. Overall, the upward momentum of cobalt prices is strong, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and rise in the future. However, there is significant resistance for cobalt prices to break through the 300000 yuan mark.

This week (September 13-19, 2025), the polyester filament market as a whole showed a weak downward trend, with a shift in price focus and a cautious market sentiment. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6600-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7900-8150 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton.
Weakened cost support and weak upstream raw materials: Although international crude oil prices have fluctuated, the transmission support for polyester filament costs is limited. More importantly, the trends of direct raw materials such as PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and MEG (ethylene glycol) have fluctuated weakly. As of September 15th, the cost of polymerization has dropped to 5400.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from the beginning of the month, significantly weakening the cost support for polyester filament.
The demand continues to be sluggish, and the main trend is to replenish inventory for essential needs. Downstream weaving and reloading enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm, mainly relying on the consumption of previous inventory, and their purchasing behavior is very cautious, only maintaining inventory for essential needs. The average production and sales rate of polyester filament factories is only at a low level of 30-40%, indicating a sluggish market transaction volume.
Poor terminal orders: The recovery of terminal textile and clothing demand is slow, and the prospects for overseas orders are also affected by the uncertainty of Sino US trade policies. The raw fabric inventory of the weaving factory is at a high level during the same period, while the profit margin is narrow, which seriously restricts the downstream’s stocking capacity and willingness for raw material polyester filament.
Inventory pressure is rising and factory inventory is accumulating: Due to the continued light production and sales, the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories is constantly increasing. High inventory suppresses prices. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, some companies will choose to offer discounts and promotions, which further suppresses market prices. The operating rate remains high: Despite poor demand, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively high at 91.3%, indicating significant supply pressure.
It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain weak and fluctuate in the short term, and both polyester filament factories and downstream weaving enterprises are cautious and pessimistic about the future prospects. The market is generally concerned that the National Day holiday will further accumulate inventory, so destocking and shipping is currently the mainstream mentality.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 11th to 18th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2290 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2261 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.46%, and a year-on-year drop of 5.83%. The narrow accumulation of methanol inventory in ports, coupled with high inventory levels, continues to suppress the market. Currently, there is no positive boost, and the market performance is weak. Affected by downstream pre holiday restocking and stable demand for olefins in mainland China, the methanol market in mainland China continues to rise.
As of the close on September 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2376 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2339 yuan/ton. It closed at 2346 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 34 yuan or 1.43% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 595422 lots, the position is 942904, and the daily increase is 106296.
On the cost side, some coal mines have temporarily stopped production, and supply has slightly tightened. Coal prices continue to rise, and cost support has rebounded. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid continues to rise. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with occasional declines. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is stable with small fluctuations. The Henan plant has resumed operation, with an increase in on-site supply, and there is a strong desire for the dimethyl ether factory to reduce inventory. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery is less than the loss, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 325.5-326.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 98-99 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 291.5-292.5 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, as Northwest olefin enterprises cut down on quantity and receive goods, traders will have limited conversion transactions, and downstream purchases will still be dominated by price cutting. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be consolidating and observing.