On September 30th, the average market price in East China was 278040 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 277500-279000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 278040 yuan/ton, an increase of 5400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Shanghai tin rose sharply in night trading, with the main contract price approaching a 4% increase at one point, breaking the highest point in over 5 months. However, the subsequent increase saw a slight correction, and during today’s white trading phase, the price further declined. Eventually, the main contract closed with a 0.94% increase, closing at 275070 yuan/ton.
On the news front, Indonesian President Prabowo announced that 1000 illegal mines in Bangka Belitung province have been closed. Triggering market concerns about the supply side.
The price of Shanghai tin futures is at a high level and maintaining a consolidation trend, and the basis discount between near month contracts and far month contracts has further expanded; In the second trading session, its increase narrowed slightly. As prices continue to rise, smelters choose to hold on and wait, unwilling to ship easily, which limits market transactions to a certain extent. In terms of the spot market, the recent spot procurement situation has been relatively stable, and downstream enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking. With the significant increase in the price of Shanghai tin futures, market activity has significantly decreased and gradually returned to a flat state. It is understood that although there are some inquiries in the market, actual transactions are extremely rare. Overall, the demand for tin in downstream industries still needs further improvement. However, many market participants are skeptical about whether market prices can rise in sync with consumer demand after the holiday.
In terms of follow-up, the premium for October is around 100 to 200 yuan/ton, while the premium for Yunzitou is around 200 to 500 yuan/ton, and the premium for Yunxi is around 9500 to 700 yuan/ton

Last week (September 22-28, 2025), the market fluctuation of the main raw material dissolving slurry was not significant, and the performance on the cost side was average, with limited support on the cost side; The overall inventory level in the market is not high, and there is still support from the supply side. Downstream cotton yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable. The market price of viscose staple fiber continues to move steadily.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (September 22-28, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of September 28, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week.
In terms of cost: Last week (September 22-28, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with weak support and limited cost performance. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Low inventory level
The industry supply remains stable, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are not high, and downstream yarn enterprises pick up goods according to demand. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand pickup
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of September 21st, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 25th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9720 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9360 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 360 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63%.
In terms of market conditions, “Golden September” is still good, and the metal silicon market is stable and rising
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since September, the overall domestic silicon metal market has shown a stable and upward trend. The overall focus of the market is moving upwards. As of September 26th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9700-9900 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, in East China it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton, and in Xinjiang it is 8900-9100 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of cost: On the eve of the Double Festival, the price of raw material silicon coal remained strong, providing increased cost support for metallic silicon.
On the demand side: With the upcoming Double Festival, downstream users are gradually stocking up before the holiday, and the overall market mentality is good. The good expectation of demand side improvement is driving the market situation steadily upward.
On the supply side: In September, the overall operating capacity of silicon metal was relatively stable compared to August, and the overall silicon metal production continued to increase. Therefore, there is some supply pressure on the supply side. However, Yunnan and Sichuan regions are about to enter a dry season, and electricity prices will rise. In addition, there are expectations of continued increases in silicon and coal prices, and supply side shipments are still mainly driven by rising prices, providing impetus for the upward trend of the market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and there is still a slight game between supply and demand. The transmission of supply and demand is in a tight balance state. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that after the holiday, the metal silicon market will mainly stabilize and operate, and more attention should be paid to changes in cost and supply and demand in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market fell first and then rose this week (September 22-26). As of September 26, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4639 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the restart of some facilities and the weakening of crude oil prices, the center of gravity of PTA prices shifted downwards. During the week, with the rebound of oil prices, the recovery of commodity sentiment, and the increase in downstream pre holiday stocking demand, the trend of PTA has rebounded.
Specifically, the current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 77%.
The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the international crude oil market triggered potential supply risks, which superimposed the decline of the US commercial crude oil inventory and the rise of international oil prices. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $64.98 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.58 per barrel.
The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream polyester enterprises has rebounded, and the upcoming double holiday is approaching. Polyester and weaving factories have a certain demand for stocking, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. There is some support for short-term demand. But the sustainability is not enough, and the expectation of new orders and load recovery in the future is limited.
Business analysts believe that the current peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated, with international oil prices mainly fluctuating and adjusting in the short term. The restart of PX maintenance facilities both domestically and internationally has led to a gradual increase in PX supply to a relatively high level, putting pressure on PTA costs. The demand side is improving in stages, but we still need to pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement in terminal order acceptance. At the same time, there is an expectation of an increase in supply and inventory, and overall, PTA will show a fluctuating and weak trend.

In August 2025, the import volume of phenol in China was 7800 tons, a month on month decrease of 50.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 62.32%. In August 2025, the export volume of phenol in China was 1400 tons, a decrease of 86.79% month on month and 78.46% year-on-year.
The main reason for the fluctuation in imports and exports is that there is no supplement to the ocean going contracts in August, and the supplement is mainly for near ocean goods contracts, with a monthly import volume of less than 10000 tons; The demand gap for overseas phenol has narrowed within the month, and China’s phenol export operations have decreased.
According to customs data statistics, the total import volume of phenol in China from January to August 2025 was 175400 tons, an increase of 23.26% compared to the same period in 2024; The total export volume was 40900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.68%.
The import increment is mainly affected by the supply of Saudi Arabian contracts. The maintenance period in 2025 is in the second quarter, during which inventory and loading cycles are considered. The contracts for June and July will gradually decrease, and there will be no cargo supply in August; In 2024, maintenance will be concentrated in the first quarter, coupled with the transfer of goods to international markets, resulting in a significant reduction in phenol contracts in China. The reduction in exports is mainly due to the reduction of economic loss pressure for phenol ketone enterprises in 2025, and is also related to the domestic supply and price of phenol.
In the short term, the expected increase in exports is not significant. In September, domestic phenol spot prices were tight in many places, and inventory at Jiangyin port fluctuated below 10000 tons. Moreover, domestic prices were relatively high, and the advantage in export negotiations is not significant. It is estimated that there will not be outstanding performance in the month on month increase in September.
In the long run, it is expected that the ocean going contracts will resume normal operation in the fourth quarter, and the import volume will increase compared to the third quarter. However, considering the changes in the international supply situation, it is unlikely to reach the high level of the first and second quarters, and the annual data is still changing.