According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has shown an upward trend recently. As of August 4th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.17% month on month and 13.76% compared to the same period last year.
The dual support of supply and demand drives up prices
Supply side: The continuous control of production volume by manufacturers in the early stage has led to a tightening of the supply side, and currently there is a shortage of market supply.
Demand side: Increased export demand, currently in the export cycle, with tight market inventory.
Methanol oscillation operation at the raw material end
The domestic methanol market is showing signs of recovery. Northwest olefin factories are increasing their external procurement volume, coupled with favorable effects such as ongoing maintenance of some facilities and low inventory levels in enterprises. Upstream companies are selling at high prices, while downstream companies are passively following suit.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market is currently in short supply and still has upward momentum. It is expected that formic acid prices will further rise, but specific changes in market conditions still need to be monitored.

Since July, the overall ABS market trend has continued to be weak, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10312.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.94% compared to early July.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Throughout July, the domestic ABS industry experienced significant fluctuations in load, with the overall load level fluctuating from 66% at the beginning of the month to around 67%. The weekly average production has remained stable at over 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises at the end of the month has risen to a high of over 220000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. At the beginning of the month, Haijiang Chemical returned to maintenance and Liaoning Jinfa’s new plant capacity was put into operation, accumulating a series of production increases in the second half of the month, including Dalian Hengli, and the industry’s supply side continued to relax. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, but fortunately, industry inventory is relatively controllable. Overall, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In July, the overall ABS upstream three material market experienced two declines and fluctuations, which limited the support for ABS cost side. The acrylonitrile market remains deadlocked, with enterprise capacity utilization rates and output basically leveling off. Although the Haijiang plant in Shandong is still in a shutdown state, Jilin Petrochemical plans to expand its 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant and put it into operation by the end of July, while Liaoning Jinfa Technology’s 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant will resume operation by the end of July. The expected supply growth continues to affect market sentiment. The overall utilization rate of downstream production capacity has significantly decreased, and enterprises purchase raw materials on demand, resulting in a weakening of overall demand. In addition, with slightly insufficient cost support, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain stagnant in the short term.
The domestic butadiene market fell in the first half of July and then rebounded in the second half. Affected by insufficient demand in the early stage, the main production areas actively exported, resulting in some unsold products in the market, and the ex factory prices of the main refineries were lowered one after another. In the second half of the month, the insufficient arrival of port inventory in the East China region boosted market sentiment, prompting companies to switch to premium transactions. Due to the expected weak fundamentals in the future, the butadiene market may experience overall weak fluctuations.
Styrene fluctuated and fell during July. Upstream crude oil and pure benzene fluctuated, although there was an upward trend at the end of the month, they did not provide sufficient support for styrene. On the supply side, port inventory continues to increase, and downstream three S enterprises are experiencing further losses. Under the pressure of high finished product inventory, they continue to stop and reduce their burden, resulting in a weakened demand for styrene. The current fundamentals of the styrene market are weak and difficult to change, and it is expected to operate weakly in the future.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market is in the traditional off-season range, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. Since July, the market concerns caused by the deterioration of geopolitics in the Middle East have been largely resolved, and industry players are more concerned about the uncertainty of US future tariff policies and their impact on market demand. A cautious atmosphere pervades the market, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.

Future forecast
During July, the domestic ABS market remained weak and the consolidation trend continued. The prices of upstream three materials are generally weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants is stable with small increases, while the demand side is at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term.

On July 31st, the average market price in East China was 265660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 265000-267000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 266000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2340 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Shanghai Tin experienced a volatile decline in early trading, with a slight decrease in the near to far month basis spread discount in the spot market. As of the second trading session, the price fluctuations were not significant, and the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2509 closed down 0.92% on the 31st.
The downward trend in futures prices continues, and smelters are determined to raise prices and have a strong reluctance to sell, which has restricted trading. In the spot market, the market is volatile, and merchants maintain a pace of shipment. Downstream market demand is limited, and only a small amount of replenishment is carried out based on rigid demand, with no significant changes yet. At present, considering the weak supply and demand situation in the tin market, some market participants remain cautious, and the demand off-season continues, making it difficult to achieve a significant increase in market activity.
In terms of follow-up, the August premium is around 200-600 yuan/ton, the Yunzi Head is around 600-900 yuan/ton, and the Yunxi is around 900-1200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the price of 0 # zinc was 22404 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the zinc price of 22242 yuan/ton on July 7th.
This week’s market analysis
Compared to last week, the price fluctuation range of zinc has further narrowed this week, and the forces of long and short sides are still fiercely competing. The premium of zinc ingots has shown a slight upward trend, which reflects the improvement of price competitiveness in the current spot market, and the balance of market competition is gradually shifting towards the seller’s side. At present, the spot price of zinc remains in a volatile pattern overall, but the rebound of the premium also reveals that at specific time points or local areas, spot supply is slightly tight, and buyers are willing to pay a certain premium to ensure that they can obtain the source of goods.
Raw material end
This week, the overall processing fee for zinc concentrate remained stable. The trading activity in the imported zinc concentrate market is poor, appearing relatively quiet. This week, the price comparison between domestic and foreign markets showed a weakening trend. Although the processing fees for imported minerals have slightly increased, the willingness of smelting enterprises to receive goods is not strong, and their emotions are relatively average.
Supply and demand side
Although it is currently the off-season for traditional demand, the operating rates of some downstream industries are showing a month on month upward trend. Taking the galvanizing industry as an example, under the strong promotion of policies, some infrastructure construction projects have steadily advanced, providing strong support for the demand for galvanizing products, resulting in an increase in galvanizing production rate compared to the previous period. However, the time window for grabbing exports has already closed, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle. These factors pose significant obstacles to the long-term growth of galvanizing demand, and it is expected that there is limited room for further improvement in galvanizing production rates in the future. The rush to install in the early stage of the photovoltaic industry has subsided, and the construction progress of related projects has significantly slowed down. The demand for zinc has also decreased accordingly, and the demand for zinc in the photovoltaic industry has declined. The production schedule of the home appliance industry has been lowered, and companies have reduced their purchases of zinc, resulting in a downward trend in zinc purchases by home appliance companies. The automotive industry has adjusted its production pace due to increasing inventory pressure. Currently, there has been no significant increase in demand for zinc, and the demand for zinc in the automotive industry has remained stable.
Overall, the real demand for zinc is facing weakening pressure. Although the operating rate of some downstream industries has increased to a certain extent, enterprises have a lower acceptance of high priced zinc and are more cautious in their procurement, mostly focusing on on-demand procurement.
Inventory end
This week’s zinc inventory data shows an upward trend. With the continuous strengthening of environmental policies, the environmental requirements for zinc smelting enterprises in the production process are becoming increasingly strict. The current increase in inventory may indicate an increase in pressure on the market supply side in the short term, which may be related to factors such as the concentration of zinc ingots produced in the early stage reaching the market, and the incomplete release and digestion of downstream demand.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a weak and volatile consolidation trend. The current zinc market presents a situation where supply performance is still acceptable but demand is relatively weak. From the perspective of overseas situations, the uncertainty of the global economy and sudden changes in policies may add new variables to the trend of zinc prices.

The butadiene rubber market slightly rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.30% from 11820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point during the cycle was 8600 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuates and rises, causing the cost center of butadiene rubber to shift upwards; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 29th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 12000 to 12350 yuan/ton.
In July, the price of butadiene fluctuated and rose, while the cost support of butadiene rubber strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of butadiene was 9466 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.19% compared to 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In July, there was a slight fluctuation in the domestic butadiene rubber plant. As of the end of July, the domestic butadiene rubber production started at around 6.70%, and supply pressure still exists.
Demand side: Downstream tire production slightly increased in July, and domestic tire companies’ semi steel tire production slightly increased from 7.00% at the beginning of the month to around 7.50% at the end of the month; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong has increased from 6.20% to around 6.50% by the end of the month. Mainly for the rigid support of butadiene rubber.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will rise significantly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will strengthen; Downstream demand for Shunding rubber is in high demand, and in August, Qilu and other Shunding units plan to shut down for maintenance. The pressure on the supply side of Shunding rubber will ease in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will continue to fluctuate and rise in August.