1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in February. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 104496.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 102136.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.26% and a year-on-year increase of 32.91%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper futures prices were higher than spot prices in February, with the main contract being the expected price two months later. It is expected that copper prices will be relatively weak in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 25370 tons, up 45.24% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, at the beginning of the month, the market’s expectations for loose global liquidity cooled down, coupled with concentrated profit taking in the early stages. The main copper contract in Shanghai fell more than 9% on February 3, hitting a temporary low. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually improved, but the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March was still considered low by the market, and the volatility of the US dollar index suppressed copper prices.
Supply side: The global copper concentrate is expected to have a shortage of 200000 tons, mainly due to aging mines, insufficient capital expenditures, and production disruptions. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may fall into a substantial shortage. In January 2026, China’s electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a month on month increase of only 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down. The industry generally expects that global refineries will face significant pressure to reduce production in 2026, especially small and medium-sized smelters with lower long-term order ratios may be the first to reduce production.
Downstream: The seasonal decline in downstream operating rates before and after the Spring Festival. The operating rate of cable companies for the week of February 12th was 56.01%, a decrease of 4.14 percentage points compared to the previous week; The year-on-year production of air conditioning from February to April was -31.6%, -6.5%, and+4.0% respectively, indicating weak demand in the traditional sector. However, the new energy sector continues to bring incremental consumption, and the construction of AI data centers, global power grid renovation, and energy facility reconstruction constitute structural demand support.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper has risen more than fallen in March.
In summary, in the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain range volatility. The high inventory pressure and slow seasonal resumption of downstream work will suppress the upward space of prices, but the shortage of mining and the expectation of smelting production reduction provide bottom support. In the medium to long term, with the recovery of domestic consumption and the depletion of global inventory, copper prices are expected to regain their upward trend.

Zinc price in February
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of February 28th, the zinc price was 24438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.19% from the zinc price of 25776 yuan/ton on February 1st.
The zinc market has experienced a turning point from a “good start” to a “high resistance”. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, there has been an imbalance of strong supply and weak demand throughout the month, with a significant shift in the price center compared to January. At the beginning of the month, zinc prices continued to fluctuate from a strong high in January; Entering holiday mode in mid month, trading stagnates; After the holiday, there was a sharp contrast between stable production on the supply side and slow recovery on the demand side. Social inventory quickly accumulated to recent highs, suppressing the potential for price rebound.
In terms of raw materials
The zinc raw material market is currently showing a trend of tight supply and continuously low processing fees, which has built a solid bottom support for zinc prices. The processing fee for zinc concentrate remains at a low operating level. This week, the mainstream processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate fluctuated within the range of 1200-1500 yuan/metal ton. The processing fee for imported minerals is also fluctuating at a low level, with the mainstream market price ranging from $20 to $40 per dry ton. This price level is at a relatively low level in the past three years, fully reflecting that the pattern of tight supply in the mining sector has not changed.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, there is a trend of stable quantity and increasing inventory, with accumulated inventory becoming the core factor in suppressing prices. Specifically, the production at the smelting end remained stable. During the Spring Festival holiday, mainstream zinc smelting enterprises in China maintained shift operations, and the overall operating rate only slightly declined. Large refineries maintained an operating rate of over 75% with the support of long-term supply and by-product income, while small and medium-sized refineries faced profit pressure but have not yet experienced large-scale production cuts; After the holiday, with the resumption of logistics and personnel returning to work, the production of the smelting plant quickly returned to normal levels. At the same time, social inventory accumulated beyond expectations, becoming the most significant feature of the supply side in February. As of February, the total social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 200000 tons. The weekly inventory data from the previous period showed that zinc inventory increased by 23972 tons this week.
On the demand side, the pace of downstream resumption of work is significantly slower than the same period in previous years. The resumption of production by downstream galvanizing enterprises is mostly concentrated around February 24th; This makes it difficult for the demand side to form an effective demand pull effect. The differentiation trend in segmented fields is extremely significant. Galvanized enterprises have suffered from the dual impact of environmental restrictions and shrinking orders in the north, resulting in a significant decline in operating rates compared to the same period last year; Die casting zinc alloy enterprises have taken early holidays, resulting in a significant extension of inventory turnover days; The zinc oxide industry has been dragged down by the decline in operating rates of tire factories, resulting in a decrease in production compared to the previous period. However, the amount of zinc used in the new energy sector increased by 18% year-on-year, but this increase has not yet formed an effective demand hedge.
Spot trading remains sluggish. The resumption of work after the holiday did not meet the expected goals, and coupled with some companies completing phased replenishment of inventory in the first week after the holiday, the purchasing willingness quickly cooled down, and the market spot transactions remained sluggish. The downstream market mainly adopts the strategy of buying on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen slightly, but downstream procurement is still relatively light.
Future forecast
In February, the zinc market operated under pressure in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price center shifted significantly downwards compared to January. The contradiction between stable production on the supply side and slow recovery on the demand side is ultimately reflected through the rapid accumulation of inventory. The traditional consumption peak season in March is approaching, and the market is expected to have a direction choice – if downstream resumption of work accelerates as scheduled, coupled with smooth inventory clearance, zinc prices are expected to experience a temporary recovery trend; On the contrary, if demand remains weak, inventory pressure will continue to suppress prices.

On February 27th, the average market price in East China was 431460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 430000-435000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 431460 yuan/ton, an increase of 14980 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.
In the morning session, Shanghai tin futures showed a high volatility trend, and the near and far month basis spread continued to expand with discounts; Entering the second trading session, the market’s gains further expanded. Prices continue to rise, smelters stick to prices, and the shipment scale is relatively limited. The closing price of Shanghai tin was 453240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35060 yuan/ton.
The long-term upward logic of tin prices is stable, mainly supported by structural constraints on the supply side. Global tin resources are concentrated in politically unstable regions such as Myanmar and Indonesia, which have been vulnerable to export restrictions, mining restructuring, and geopolitical conflicts in recent years. Recently, the Indonesian Minister of Mines stated that they are considering banning the export of various raw materials, including tin, which would significantly tighten global supply if implemented. In addition, there is a lack of large-scale new mines being put into operation globally, and high-grade ore bodies are gradually depleting, leading to an overall increase in industry mining costs.
At the spot level, prices have shown an upward trend recently, and most traders are shipping at a regular pace, while downstream buyers are showing more caution. In the short term, consumer power still needs to be further strengthened, and many market participants have limited efforts to replenish their inventory temporarily. It will take time to verify how the subsequent demand will be; From a trend perspective, stimulated by news related to the country of origin, the impact of market funding has increased, and short-term price increases are expected to continue.
Today’s market report shows that small brand products have a premium price range of 300 to 600 yuan/ton for March, while cloud products have a premium price range of approximately 600 to 900 yuan/ton for March, and cloud tin products have a premium price range of around 900 to 1200 yuan/ton for March.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen three times this week (2.23-2.26). The market average price at the beginning of the week was 378420 yuan/ton, and as of February 26, the market average price was 416620 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.56%.
With the quiet end of the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of tin prices has been particularly remarkable, achieving a strong trend of three consecutive increases in just a few days after the holiday.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, most mainstream smelting enterprises in China implemented shutdown and maintenance measures according to the established plan. Based on this situation, it is expected that the tin ingot production will decline to a certain extent that month. Despite the market’s expectation of a slow recovery in Myanmar’s mineral imports, the tightening of quota policies in Indonesia has undoubtedly created rigid constraints on tin ore supply.
supply side
There are hidden concerns on the supply side, and the market’s expectation that Indonesia may introduce a policy to ban the export of tin raw materials, coupled with the risk of tin mine supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo, further exacerbates the market’s worries about the tightening of tin supply.
demand side
After the holiday, traders and downstream industries such as solder, electronics, and photovoltaics will gradually resume work and production. In this situation, the market’s rigid demand for procurement is expected to gradually rebound. However, given that tin prices are still at historically high levels, this may continue to have a restraining effect on downstream companies’ willingness to stock up and procurement efforts, and the process of demand recovery may be relatively slow.
In the spot market, the current circulation of spot goods is relatively limited, and prices generally show a rising trend. Among the downstream solder enterprises, most are still in a holiday state, and only some have resumed work. However, they are still in the final stage of equipment debugging and have not yet fully started actual production. Those enterprises that have resumed production are mostly consuming inventory before the Spring Festival, prioritizing the processing of pre holiday orders, and have a very low willingness to meet new procurement needs.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are expected to maintain high volatility, and the market needs to closely monitor the actual resumption pace of downstream enterprises after the holiday, the strong demand for replenishment, and the specific implementation of Indonesia’s export policies.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (2.12-2.25), with an average market price of 16450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.61%.
Compared to before the holiday, the price of Fugu magnesium ingots showed a slight upward trend, and after the holiday, the magnesium market as a whole showed a pattern of “stable prices trending upwards, and a quiet trading atmosphere”. The pace of downstream enterprises resuming work is relatively slow, and the market is filled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Although there has been an increase in market inquiry activities, the actual purchasing willingness is relatively low, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in terminal demand.
supply side
Although inventory has accumulated to a certain extent during the holiday period, manufacturers’ willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, and quotations remain firm. Processing costs for some magnesium alloys have also slightly increased.
Demand side:
The demand side is in a “gradual recovery” state, and most enterprises are mainly digesting their previous inventory. The inquiry and trading atmosphere is relatively low, and the game between supply and demand is in a stalemate. The magnesium market is temporarily maintaining a stable operating trend.
Cost side:
Although the price of 75% silicon iron in Fugu area remained stable compared to before the holiday, the overall market showed a weak trend after the holiday. The futures market has been weak and volatile, with prices falling to a recent low. As a result, spot prices have also been lowered. The price of Fugu blue charcoal is currently running steadily, but the market is facing downward pressure after the holiday. It is expected that the Fugu blue charcoal market will continue to show a weak trend in the short term, and the price may continue to maintain a stable to weak trend.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to fluctuate within a range and steadily rise in the short term. The subsequent market needs to closely monitor the dynamic adjustment of supply and demand, the resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises, and the fluctuations in raw material prices.