1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.90% compared to the price of 19333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 18.10% compared to the same period last year

According to monitoring data from the Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% compared to the price of 24666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the overall level compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the middle of March, the domestic price of chloroform rose and fell back. As of March 17, the price of chloroform rose 2.34% during the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell 0.58% slightly. Overall, the overall increase in the cost of raw materials upstream of R22 has stabilized, with relatively high raw material costs. In addition, the weather has gradually returned, and the demand for refrigerant has gradually warmed up. Supported by cost and demand, the domestic price of refrigerant R22 has continued to operate steadily and moderately strong this week.

In the middle of March, the domestic trichloroethylene price remained stable, while the hydrofluoric acid price slightly decreased. As of March 17, the hydrofluoric acid price fell slightly by 0.58% during the month. Overall, the upstream raw material cost of R134a was generally weak, and supported by the recovery of gas temperature and refrigerant demand, the domestic refrigerant R134a price remained stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, compared to previous years’ domestic hydrofluoric acid prices, in 2023, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price will continue to be at a relatively low level after rising and falling, and the continued low cost of raw materials will play a certain role in suppressing the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that the rising trend of raw material costs is stabilizing, and supported by a slight rebound in demand, it is expected that the domestic R22 market price will continue to be strong in the short term. The continued weakness of raw material costs will form a certain pressure on the domestic R134a price in the future, and the price of R134a in the future will continue to recover with insufficient momentum. It is expected that in the short term, the overall domestic R134a price will be at the current level for consolidation operation.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, on March 16th, the market price of butyl acetate slightly increased, with a year-on-year increase of 1.37%. The mainstream quotation range is 7300-7500 yuan/ton.

Market analysis: The main reason for the increase is the cost side. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of the upstream product n-butanol rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of 1.86%. The rise in raw materials led to a rise in downstream butyl esters. However, supply and demand fundamentals are still weak, and market transactions are not good. The enthusiasm for entering the downstream market is not high, and the consumption rate in the region is slow, and the supply and demand remain relatively balanced.

Future market forecast: The cost side is positive in the short term or can be realized, while the supply and demand fundamentals are weak and difficult to improve. It is expected that butyl acetate will continue to push up weakly. In the later stage, the adjustment pattern may continue to be maintained.

Since February of this year, the price center of domestic polyester staple fiber has been moving downward, and the factory price has been mainly negotiated. According to the monitoring of the Business Society, the average ex-factory price was 7393 yuan/ton as of March 14, down 3.38% from February 1, down 9.49% year on year. At the supply side, the current Fujian Jinlun restart device discharge, with the improvement of the starting trend, the supply increased slightly.

Cost support weakened. The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in the United States caused the market to worry about financial risks. The decline of the stock market exacerbated the decline of crude oil prices. As of March 14, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $71.33/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures was US $77.45/barrel. PTA followed the decline of crude oil. On March 14, the domestic PTA spot market price was 5750 yuan/ton. In addition, the PTA unit load was slightly increased, and the current industrial commencement was increased to more than 74%, with a small increase in supply, which caused a certain drag on the price.

Downstream demand for maintaining rigidity is obvious, while speculative demand is still insufficient. New orders received by cotton mills and cloth mills may have seasonal improvement. The orders are mainly small and short orders. Some customers actively purchase, and the willingness to replenish has increased.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the polyester staple fiber maintenance device has been gradually restarted, and the supply pressure in March remains. Affected by the weakening of crude oil, the lower reaches are cautious and have a strong wait-and-see attitude, but the market still has a positive attitude towards the terminal demand expectation. In general, the short term volatility of staple fiber prices is weak.

Since March, the market of chloroform has risen first and then declined. According to the data of the Business News Agency, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3275 yuan/ton as of March 14, a slight increase of 2.34% from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 3450 yuan/ton. The downstream trichloromethane refrigerant market has gradually entered the traditional peak season, with the price rising, and there is a demand for replenishment of trichloromethane. In addition to the shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises’ methane chloride devices in the early stage, the market supply is expected to be tight, and the factory price of trichloromethane has been increased, and the mainstream offer of trichloromethane market has risen; In the later stage, with the restart of the overhaul unit, the supply of chloroform became loose, and the price of raw material methanol fell slightly, and the market of chloroform fell slightly.

Since March, the start of methane chloride unit has risen slightly. Trichloromethane supply pressure increases.

Since March, the price of raw material methanol has declined slightly, and the cost support of trichloromethane has weakened. According to the business news agency, the spot price of methanol was 2640 yuan/ton as of March 14, down 3.47% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The international crude oil price has dropped sharply in the past two days, combined with the overall stability and small fluctuation of the domestic coal market, the methanol price will not rise significantly in the near future, and the cost of chloroform is expected to be stable and weak.

On the one hand, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. On the other hand, since the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the price of R22 will continue to rise and there will be a replenishment demand for chloroform. However, the overall demand will continue to decrease compared with previous years due to the reduction of the quota.

According to the methane chloride data analyst of the Business News Agency, although the demand side of chloroform is currently supported, the supply side has become loose, and the price of raw materials has fallen, so it is expected that the market of chloroform will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

DBP prices fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 13, the DBP price was 9525 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the DBP price of 9587.50 yuan/ton on March 6. The plasticizer DBP enterprises started steadily, the supply of DBP was sufficient, and the rise of raw materials was not supported enough. This week, the price of DBP fell sharply.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of March 13, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8637.50 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the price of 8475 yuan/ton on March 6. The price of o-xylene rose, and the willingness of phthalic anhydride to stand up was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose in shock this week, and the rising power of DBP increased.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 13, the price of n-butanol was 7300 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from that of March 6, 7400 yuan/ton. The start of n-butanol enterprises this week was stable, and the demand for the end of n-butanol downstream stock was poor. The price of n-butanol this week fell in shock, and the cost of DBP fell. The rising power of DBP in the future weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Downstream PVC market fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price was 6225 yuan/ton as of March 13, down 0.29% from the PVC price of 6243.33 yuan/ton on March 1; The price of PVC fell by 0.35% from 6246.67 yuan/ton on March 6. In March, the spot price of PVC fluctuated and fell, the transaction of PVC spot market was tepid, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods was poor, the demand for DBP was poor, and the downward pressure of DBP remained.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DBP data analysts of Business News Agency, plasticizer enterprises started work steadily this week and DBP supply was sufficient; In terms of raw materials, phthalic anhydride rose in shock, n-butanol prices fell in shock, and DBP raw material costs consolidated; In terms of demand, the downstream PVC price fluctuated and fell, and the demand for plasticizers was poor. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DBP tends to stabilize and the demand is less than expected. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DBP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.