Trade name: urea

Latest price (October 18): 2526 yuan/ton

On October 18, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly, 4 yuan/ton lower than that on October 17, or 0.16%, and 17.68% lower than that on the same period last year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing block) is about 1850 yuan/ton, the price is high and consolidated, and the cost support is firm. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price will fall slightly, with an average market price of about 2520 yuan/ton.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (October 17): 7850 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The cryolite market in Henan Province is finishing up, and the average price of cryolite production is 0.96% higher than last weekend. The upstream raw materials are tight, the production of cryolite is under pressure, the enterprise’s capacity utilization rate is low, the cryolite inventory is low, and the downstream demand is weak. A small number of purchases need to be followed up. The enterprise ships on demand, the supply and demand in the field are deadlocked, and the cryolite price is running at a high level.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market is at a high level, and the price rises slightly. The future market will focus on the market supply.

Price trend of ethylene oxide

According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on October 14 was 7433.33 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); It was 16.45% higher than the average market price of 6383.33 yuan/ton on August 1.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

After the festival, the price of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer at the downstream of the main stream has dropped significantly. Affected by poor terminal demand, market confidence is insufficient. At present, the loss of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer has expanded, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has declined, and the demand for ethylene oxide has been balanced.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, since October, the 300 thousand ton ethylene oxide unit in Selbang has been shut down. In terms of new capacity, 730000 tons of satellite petrochemical has been released and operated under low load; Gulei device was fed on October 11; The 168000 ton unit of Sinopec Shanghai operates normally; Weekly output rose slightly month on month.

On the cost side, the price of ethylene as raw material has risen slightly in the near future, while the price of ethylene oxide is still supported on the cost side.

On the supply and demand side, the terminal demand is placed in the real estate industry, and the demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer, one of the main downstream players, is expected to be poor, generally showing strong supply and weak demand.

Future market forecast

On the whole, the market pattern of ethylene oxide tends to be generally strong in supply and weak in demand. The weak expectation of the downstream market depresses the price of ethylene oxide, which is expected to be weak and stable in the short term. Later, we will see whether the price difference of overseas ethylene oxide will bring opportunities for export substitution.

Trade name: PVC

Latest price: 6324.29 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: On October 13, the PVC market was relatively light, traders were not enthusiastic about taking goods, and the futures price fell today, so the market confidence was obviously insufficient. At present, the focus of spot market trading is downward. Downstream replenish the goods as needed, be cautious in taking the goods, and wait and see more.

Forecast: The PVC spot market is weak in the short term.

After the festival, DOP prices rose sharply and fell back

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 12, the DOP price was 10450 yuan/ton, up 3.26% from 10120 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the DOP price of 10480 yuan/ton on October 11, it decreased slightly by 0.29%. After the festival, the DOP price rose sharply, but due to poor demand, the downstream customers’ receptivity was insufficient, and the high DOP price fell back.

After the festival, the price of isooctanol rose and fell back

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell after the festival. As of October 12, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, up 2.99% from 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; The price of isooctanol dropped by 1.43% compared with the price of 9333.33 yuan/ton on October 10. After the festival, enterprises replenished more stocks, the price of isooctanol rose, but the downstream demand was poor, the support for the rise of isooctanol was insufficient, and the price of isooctanol fell under pressure.

The price of phthalic anhydride hit a new high after the festival

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10575 yuan/ton as of October 12, up 2.67% from 10300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, phthalic anhydride enterprises had a lot of maintenance. The price of ortho benzene rose sharply. The supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, and the cost was supported. After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride hit a new high. The cost of DOP rose, and the impetus for DOP to rise remained.

PVC prices rose slightly after the festival

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price was 6332.86 yuan/ton as of October 12, up 1.07% from 6265.71 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, PVC prices rose slightly, and DOP demand recovered slightly, but overall DOP demand remained low.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business community, in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, DOP costs and DOP prices rose sharply after the festival; However, in terms of demand, the rise of PVC is small, the recovery of DOP demand is limited, and the rise of DOP is not supported enough. In the future, the downstream has a low acceptance of high price DOP, the domestic economic recovery is less than expected, the demand growth is not good, and the future DOP price is expected to fall slightly.