According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market was shaken and sorted in early February, and the fiber products were also shaken to varying degrees in Zaangdihu County of each wire drawing brand. As of February 6, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7991.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the propylene market stabilized after falling, and the transaction atmosphere was good before, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At present, the crude oil price fluctuates and the cost support weakens, affecting the decline of propylene. After the holiday, the market demand followed up slowly, and the prices of individual enterprises fell back, and the current prices recovered smoothly.

Propylene prices stopped falling and stabilized, providing general support for PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the current high starting point of PP enterprises has declined in a narrow range, and the overall industry load is stable. The supply of goods in the site is relatively sufficient. Due to the continuous operation of the supplier’s going to the warehouse, the manufacturer’s inventory position is low and has declined, and the supply pressure is not strong. In terms of demand, at present, the upstream part of the downstream PP enterprises in China is slow to resume work, the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises have a general operating rate, and the terminal enterprises’ stock situation is not as expected, so they purchase as needed after the holiday.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 6, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8016.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, it has increased by – 1.43% and decreased by – 4.56% year-on-year. At present, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, have a general load, and the demand of terminal enterprises tends to be stable. The digestion speed of non-woven end products is general, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP is not high due to the resumption of work. The spot price is lower than that of wire drawing material, and it is expected that it will still maintain the operation of shock consolidation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the market of melt-blown PP fell in a narrow range recently. As of February 6, the average quotation of domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 9900 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, up by+4.39% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more beneficial, and the recent demand has declined and stabilized. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the recent polypropylene market has been shaken and sorted out. The market of raw material propylene stabilized after falling, and the cost support was general. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to just need to maintain production, and after the resumption of work, the demand has not been fully expanded. However, under the influence of the favorable policy and macroeconomic environment, it is expected that the PP market will improve after the resumption of downstream work.

On February 2, domestic cobalt price stopped falling and rising

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 2, the domestic cobalt price was 297000 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the cobalt price of 296200 yuan/ton on February 1. On February 2, the domestic cobalt price stopped falling and rose.

Analysis points

The cobalt price in LME market has stabilized, the decline of MB cobalt price has slowed down, and the decline of international cobalt price has slowed down; The domestic economy recovered, the production and sales of new energy vehicles rose or exceeded expectations, the sales of mobile phones were expected to warm up, and the demand of cobalt market was expected to warm up; The cobalt price is close to the cost line, and the decline space of cobalt price is limited. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly, the supply of cobalt market is sufficient, and the support of cobalt price rise is insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

The decline of the international cobalt price slows down, the demand is expected to warm up, the decline space of the cobalt price is limited, the supply of the cobalt price is sufficient, and the support for the rise of the cobalt price is insufficient. It is expected that the volatility of the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the spot market price of PVC rose in January. The average price of domestic PVC was 6141.67 yuan/ton on January 1, and 6405 yuan/ton on January 30. The price rose 4.29% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC rose in January, and the cost of PVC was well supported before the Spring Festival holiday. At the same time, the futures price has risen slightly recently, and the confidence of the spot market has strengthened. On-site trading is driven by the demand of downstream enterprises for hoarding, which has some support for the spot price. After the Spring Festival holiday, the PVC market continued its pre-holiday market trend and the price increased. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC 5 carbide is mostly around 6180-6550 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of gasoline and diesel rose during the Spring Festival. As of the 28th, the price of 92 # gasoline in China was 9005 yuan/ton, up 2.08% from the 19th; The price of domestic 0 # diesel oil was 7566.4 yuan/ton, 1.89% higher than the price on the 19th. The Spring Festival holiday boosted the market of refined oil.

In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly in January. The price of calcium carbide was set from 3700.00 yuan/ton on January 1 to 3816.17 yuan/ton on January 30, up 3.15%. The price at the end of the month was 9.84% lower than the same period last year. The price of the upstream raw material blue carbon has recently stabilized at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. Downstream 1,4-butanediol and PVC market rose slightly, and downstream demand improved. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will rise slightly in the first ten days of February, mainly by consolidation.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the PVC analyst of the Business Society, the price of PVC spot market rose this month, and the downstream replenishment price of PVC spot market rose before the Spring Festival, and the market continued its pre-holiday rise after the holiday. The futures price fell today, which has a certain impact on the confidence of the spot. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC spot market will still operate in a small fluctuation.

Price trend

In January, the POM market in China maintained a stalemate operation, and the overall performance of prices was stable. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 16, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 13933.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose in mid-January. It can be seen from the figure below that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuated slightly. In the near future, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand has weakened significantly, and some formaldehyde manufacturers have had holidays in advance, and the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much.

Supply: In January, the operating rate of POM enterprises in China continued to decline at a high level, and the industry load was around 87%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, and the inventory position is low, but the gross profit level per ton of processing profit has dropped to about 2450 yuan.

Demand: The load of POM industry has dropped recently, and the market supply is still abundant. The manufacturer’s ex-works price is firm, and under its guidance, the traders’ mentality is supported to some extent, but the demand is general, and the on-site shipments are mostly negotiated based on actual orders. Terminal enterprises have a general enthusiasm for stock preparation, and the release of demand for stock preparation before the holiday is slow, with a slight lag in follow-up.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of January, the POM market remained stagnant. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced at a high level, and the overall supply is abundant. The ex-factory price of domestic materials is stagnant, the pressure on inventory is moderate, and the demand is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory, and most of the goods are scattered orders. The momentum in the market is gradually reduced, and the industry has many holiday and delisting arrangements. It is expected that the POM market will turn into weak operation due to weak demand in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton, which was 0.92% lower than the average price of 9050 yuan/ton on January 9.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 9083 yuan/ton, which was stable this week compared with the average price of 9083 yuan/ton on January 9.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of January 13, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8650-9000 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 9200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 9300 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 8250-9500 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of the yellow phosphorus market before the festival is basically completed. Many downstream and traders have started to take holidays. There are shutdown plans during the Spring Festival, and there is no purchase plan for yellow phosphorus in the short term. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is light, with cautious delivery and more wait-and-see. The market after the Spring Festival. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 32000-33500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole remained stable at a high level. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall news of the domestic phosphate ore market is calm, the price of phosphate ore has not fluctuated significantly, and the overall market is in high consolidation. Mining enterprises in some regions of the country have stopped mining, mainly receiving pre-orders after the Spring Festival, and the stock preparation in the downstream before the Spring Festival has basically ended. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is quiet and mild.

Demand side:

Downstream demand for phosphoric acid was weak this week, and some downstream enterprises have stopped work for holidays, and terminal procurement has decreased. The phosphoric acid market is stagnant, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been slightly reduced recently, and the support of the cost side has weakened. Before the festival, the demand for phosphoric acid terminals weakened, and the number of new units on the site was relatively small. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be mainly stabilized and operated in the short term, and there will be no major changes before the holiday.