On July 6, the average market price of TDI in East China decreased by 0.14% compared with the previous working day, and the market was weak. The factory’s spot is tight, with a strong market mentality. The downstream terminals are in the traditional off-season, and the demand is weak. The cargo holders negotiate to ship at a profit, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17400-17800 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be in a stalemate, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On July 5, the rare earth index was 838 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 16.78% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 209.23% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, and the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell. The price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.125 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 917500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.18 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 962500 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1.23 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.48 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium metal is 3.22 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.445 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price has declined slightly, and the recent procurement is general. The price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market has declined, the price of terbium series has fallen, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar has banned exports, and it is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will decline slightly in the later period.

In terms of cost, the prices of some Sinopec factories in North China were slightly increased to 9350 yuan / ton. Crude oil prices rose and the spot market rose slightly. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9250-9600 yuan / ton.

The operating rate of aniline fell, the inventory level of enterprises was normal, the cost side was still high, and aniline continued to consolidate sideways. Today, the price in Shandong is 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 12300-12500 yuan / ton.

In June, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a sharp upward and downward trend. According to the price test of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber on the spot market was 8851 yuan / ton on June 30, up 3.02% from 8592 at the beginning of the month and 24.26% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber contract closed at 7978 at the end of the month, down 5.45% from the beginning of the month.

The main reasons for the rise in polyester staple fiber prices in June were weak costs and sluggish demand: opec+ maintained its original small production increase plan in August, and Biden confirmed that he would meet with Saudi leaders. The prospect of economic growth put overall pressure on market sentiment, and the high level of international crude oil futures prices fell in June. WTI crude oil fell 8.03% to close at US $105.99 per barrel in June. The fall in oil prices dragged down the high prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, the upstream raw materials of staple fiber, and the PTA period and spot month fell by 5.43% and 1.78% respectively. Ethylene glycol futures and spot fell by 11.02% and 4.00% respectively in the month. With the temperature rising and the industry off-season approaching, the downstream operating rate is gradually declining, demand and foreign trade are weak, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. This month, short fiber maintenance began to increase, the operating rate gradually fell, and the supply in some regions was insufficient, resulting in the performance of spot prices stronger than futures.

Business analysts believe that the current performance of textile terminals is still weak, with high factory inventories and weak demand and exports. In July, the off-season went further, and it is expected that the overhaul of short fiber enterprises will increase, and the operating rate may continue to decline. Under the weak supply and demand, the future market of staple fiber may still be not optimistic. Pay attention to the changes in raw material prices, the adjustment of U.S. tariff policies, the epidemic, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, etc.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business club, on the 30th, the average nickel market price was now quoted at 189000 yuan / ton, up 2.55% from the previous trading day and 38.51% year-on-year.

In the new round of economic sanctions against Russia, the British government imposed sanctions on the richest man in Russia and the president of Norilsk Nickel. Affected by this event, LME nickel once rose by more than 8%, and the overnight Lun nickel closed up by 3.22%. However, the amount of nickel products imported by Britain from Russia is very small, and the impact is limited. However, whether it will affect the registration and delivery of all Noni in LME remains to be concerned. Nickel fundamentals are expected to be weak, the supply will turn into surplus in the second half of the year, the actual consumption level is still weak, and the consumption off-season is approaching.

Forecast: due to the UK’s announcement of sanctions against Russian Financial oligarchs, nickel prices rose, but the actual fundamentals were empty, and the room for nickel to rise may be limited.