The market price of magnesium ingot rose again on the 14th

On May 14th, 2021, the total range of price range of ex factory cash tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, acid free and simple packaging) in main production areas of China was 21500-22000 yuan / ton, which was mainly discussed by actual single parties.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 21500-22000 yuan / ton; RMB 22000-22100 / ton of cash exchange in Taiyuan area; 22100-22200 yuan / ton of cash exchange in Wenxi area; Ningxia area cash exchange 21900-22000 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is the primary magnesium ingot of national standard (gb/t3499-2011); Non pickling, no wooden tray and non payment acceptance price, mainly for single negotiation.

After the festival, the price of ton rose by RMB 4000-5000 / ton

According to the data of business agency, the market quotation of main production area rose to 17400-17600 yuan / ton at the end of April. After the festival, the market quotation was high, low price goods sources were difficult to find, and the saving price increased, and the price of ton rose by 4000-5000 yuan / ton.

It is reported that the downstream end-users began to find low-cost goods on August, and the pre-season quotation inquiry was difficult. The market quotation reached 19000 yuan / ton on Monday, and it was continuously attacked in the next few days, reaching a historical market high of 20000.

This surge has been rising, catering to the trend of the soaring futures commodity market. The circle of friends spreads the paragraph “don’t bet tomorrow’s price, buy goods without skill, all buy early”, can also see that after the recent surge, market speculators see a high sentiment.

At present, the market has good trading and investment, and the manufacturers have strong willingness to settle prices. In the early stage, the stock traders have profit demand for shipment, and there is a certain bargaining space under the promotion of excessive profits.

The recent strong surge in magnesium ingot prices is mainly based on two factors:

Strong cost side support & expected improvement of supply and demand side

Strong cost side support

Cost side, in recent 1-2 years, the price of raw silicon iron is relatively strong, and the price of magnesium ingot has been relatively soft in the early stage. The cost factor has been increasing gradually.

The raw silicon iron market is affected by Ningxia energy dual control policy, and the low price source of goods has decreased sharply. In addition, the continuous operation of recent increase of the price of orchid products by the upstream raw material enterprises of ferrosilicon is added. The company has issued the notice on the price adjustment of Lancang products of the subordinate enterprises of Lancang group. The market has strengthened the expectation that the trend of ferrosilicon will be high and stable in the short term. The expected strengthening of the cost side support of magnesium ingots is expected.

In the main production area of magnesium ingot, most of the metal magnesium in Shaanxi is the recycling industry of Lancan ferrosilicon metal magnesium. The production of raw magnesium and coke powder (Lancan and clean carbon) is greatly affected by the price of raw coal, and the high production cost has greatly increased the pressure on production and operation.

Expected improvement of supply and demand

At present, domestic market demand is relatively improved, and the purchase is not up or down, the inquiry volume increases, the market is not much spot, and the spot supply is relatively tight.

On the one hand, the main production area manufacturers have not much stock, which is affected by the raw material price factors, and the initial start rate is not high and the production is relatively insufficient. At present, the spot of the factory is generally less, and some manufacturers start the pre-sale delivery mode. On the other hand, raw materials soared, and the factory price of magnesium ingots rose. The market of magnesium ingots is singing all the way, which helps some speculators to hoard goods. Some downstream small-scale customers, seeking low-cost sources, mainly to the early hoarding trade speculators, profit settlement and shipment.

Domestic demand is expected to be strengthened and import and export are also positive. According to exporters, export orders began to warm up and order volumes increased. The production abroad has gradually recovered, and the demand for magnesium ingots has risen.

Magnesium prices have hit a high of nearly nine years after the storm

According to the data of business agency, the magnesium commodity index on May 15 was 127.03, which was flat with yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 74.78% from the lowest point of 72.68 on January 10, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to March 1, 2012 to present)

We should be careful to stock up goods on speculation

At present, the coal price is relatively high, the cost pressure is relatively high, and the enterprise has not much inventory at present, and the pre-sale transaction accounts for a large proportion. The willingness of the manufacturer to settle the price is relatively sufficient. The downstream end users should have a proper amount of the primary storage to ensure the dynamic balance of magnesium used by the enterprise. If the stock speculation is the starting point, the current price is high and the risk is large, which tests the fast delivery capacity of the speculators.

The price of magnesium ingots has been constantly high, and the short-term surge is rapid. On the one hand, it is more testing the pressure bearing capacity of downstream, and it is expected that there may be a process of digestion and increase in downstream market. On the other hand, the price difference between magnesium and aluminum is back to the era when the price of magnesium is higher than that of aluminum, and the price ratio of magnesium is relatively weak.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of sodium pyrosulfite in China was stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up or down by 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite is acceptable. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1800-1850 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited（ The above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only, and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

This week, the domestic soda price dropped slightly by 0.11%, and the sulfur price rose by 1.79%. The overall price of upstream raw materials fluctuated at a high level, and the cost will play a certain role in supporting the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the high cost of raw materials shock forward, cost support, short-term market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to firm operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 13 was 3910 yuan / ton, up 28.2% compared with that on May 7, 12.25% month on month, and 39.64% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

After the May Day holiday, domestic LNG rose sharply in the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%. Looking back last week, the rise of liquefied natural gas was relatively moderate, and most of the liquid plants made tentative adjustments, with a small range. In this week, the one-day increase of LNG was in the range of 4.27% – 8.7%. In just seven days, the increase had exceeded 28%. Some of them had a second price adjustment, and the rise was strong. This round of increase is mainly due to the increase of manufacturers’ maintenance, tight supply, low enterprise inventory, rising demand after the festival, and the rise of imported gas prices. Domestic liquid prices are supported by multiple positive factors. At present, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places continue to rise, and some liquid plants have risen to more than 4000 yuan, recovering part of the previous decline and moving up the center of gravity.

In late May, the starting price of gas source bidding was 1.68-1.78 yuan / m3, which was 0.1-0.2 yuan / m3 higher than that in the first ten days. The cost support was gradually strengthened, which once again boosted the market atmosphere. The manufacturers supported the price rise, the market participants had a positive attitude, and the short-term market was relatively strong. However, the negative factors in the off-season are still in place. The increase in demand is not as fast as the rise in liquid prices. Moreover, there is a conflict in the downstream market. It may choose other alternative resources to divert part of the demand. Therefore, the off-season surge is not easy to last.

On May 13, the domestic LNG market price continued to rise, with 3730-4100 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3900-3970 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3800-4080 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3700-3950 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3850-3900 yuan / ton in Henan, 3580-3850 yuan / ton in Hebei and 3650-4100 yuan / ton in Sichuan.

region Specifications May 13th May 8th Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3730-4100 2950-3250 Up 480-850

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3900-3970 3050-3250 Up 650-750

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3800-4080 3100-3320 Up 480-760

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3700-3950 3020-3100 Up 600-850

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3850-3900 3450-3490 Up 360-410

Hebei liquified natural gas 3580-3850 3030-3350 Up 230-500

Sichuan liquified natural gas 3650-4100 3300-3450 Up 200-650

Downstream products rose more than fell less:

Methanol, May 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures high consolidation, closing at 2755 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day’s closing up 139 yuan / ton, futures rose 5.31%. The spot market of methanol is also rising. The main production areas in Northwest China drive the spot price of methanol in other regions to continue to rise. The supply and demand of raw coal is tight, which promotes the cost of coal to methanol. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2680 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%. In the near future, methanol futures are greatly affected by steam coal futures. At present, the methanol market is basically good. Methanol analysts of business cooperatives expect that the spot market of short-term methanol market will follow up slowly.

Urea, upstream liquid ammonia Market recent high consolidation, cost support is good. In the aspect of demand, agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening. India bid: on May 5, the bidding price of mmtc urea in India was announced. The lowest price on the west coast was 358.99 USD / T CFR, and the lowest price on the east coast was 356.99 USD / T CFR, equivalent to about 2120 RMB / T. It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future

Dichloromethane. On May 13, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3803.33, which was 4.77% higher than that on May 1 (3630.00). After the festival, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong Province fell sharply, and the cost was dragged by dichloromethane; However, the maintenance plan of methane chloride in the later period will provide some support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane will still be mainly explored in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts of business news agency believe that: in the near future, the domestic LNG market has been greatly pushed up by multiple favorable factors, and the rising momentum is strong. The manufacturers actively support the price, and the market entrants are optimistic. In the short term, the market is relatively strong, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, on May 12, the average price of domestic hips was 14000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, up 8.3% compared with the beginning of the month and 10.01% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the May Day holiday, hips began to rise, and the market continued to rise. The price of styrene rose by more than 5% after the festival, and then recovered slightly. The price was still at a high level, which supported the price rise of hips. However, the demand side followed up generally, the high price transaction was not smooth, the downstream heart had resistance, the receiving capacity was limited, and only just needed to maintain the purchase. The overall trading atmosphere of the market was relatively light, so there was not enough momentum for the continued rise. Most of the companies waited and saw, and hips was stable after the rise. Up to now, the price of hips is about 13650-14100 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 660 reference price is 14000 yuan / ton, Zhanjiang Zhongmei 990 reference price is 13900 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 622 reference price is 14100 yuan / ton, CITIC Guoan 688 reference price is 13650 yuan / ton, the overall market price has risen.

International crude oil market: on May 11, international oil prices closed higher, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $65.28/barrel, up 0.36 US dollars or 0.6%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.55/barrel, up US $0.23 or 0.3%. The main reason is that the market’s concern about the gasoline shortage caused by the closure of the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States after the cyber attack has not dissipated, reversing the market’s downward trend of more than 1% due to the severe impact of the epidemic.

In terms of raw materials, the trading atmosphere of Asian styrene US dollar market on November 11 was light, and the people in the market were in a strong wait-and-see mood. There were few offers, only a few paper goods were heard. CFR China, may paper 1340. CFR China closed at 1330-1390, with an average price down 20; FOB Korea closed at 1310-1370, with an average price down 20%. Unit: USD / T.

3、 Future forecast

According to the business association, the rise of raw material styrene after the festival supported the rise of hips trend, but the demand side followed up generally, and the power of continuous rise was insufficient, and hips became stable after the rise. At present, the transaction of high price hips is negative, there is pressure on the delivery of goods, and the firm offer has the performance of yielding profits. It is expected that hips will decline steadily with the callback of raw materials in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of aniline rose broadly within the week. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. On May 9, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 7.76% over last week, 46.41% over the beginning of the year, and 151.45% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 300 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton within the week. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, with good cost support. The pure benzene resources in Europe and the United States are in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is opened, and the price of the external market is rising. At home, the domestic pure benzene market is active, the spot supply is tight, and Sinopec’s listing price is high. On Sunday (May 9), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (the average price was 7720 yuan / ton), which was 310 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.18%; It was 136.09% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid dropped slightly this week. On Friday (May 7), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.45% from last week and up 58.14% from the same period last year.

The aniline maintenance unit had not been restarted in the past week, and Jinling Aniline Unit was reduced to half load operation during the festival, so the supply was reduced. The cost side price continued to rise, and the bidding price of aniline enterprises rose, which was good for aniline. The price of aniline rose broadly in the week.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost and market, the supply of pure benzene in the spot market is tight. In addition, Hongrun Petrochemical stopped exporting, and the supply in the market decreased. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is expected to be stronger. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Cost side support is strong, and there is still the possibility of short-term upward. In terms of market, there are still aniline plants that have not been restarted, with stable spot supply and stable downstream demand. In general, short-term aniline in pure benzene driven, there is a rising momentum. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.