1、 Trend analysis

On April 8, the spot copper price was 40786.67 yuan / ton, down 0.11% from the previous day, 16.82% from the beginning of the year, and 17.33% year-on-year. Shanghai copper’s main contract rebounded after opening low today. After touching 41020 yuan, it fell back to 40810 yuan, up 0.52%.

2、 Market analysis

The downstream consumption is flat, the transaction is dominated by trade flow, and the decrease of circulating goods continues to support rising water. The recent rebound in low copper price is mainly due to the continuous supply disturbance of overseas ore terminals, the expectation of reducing supply of many overseas smelting producers, the suspension of operation of many mines in Africa and Latin America, and the current reduction of domestic copper Exchange warehouses, which supports copper price. However, the global risk preference is weak, so it is difficult to improve copper demand.

3、 Future prospects

According to the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business agency think that under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is difficult for short-term copper price to rise significantly.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on April 5 was 22500 yuan / ton, compared with 22833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (30 days), down 1.46% in the week. On April 5, the R134a commodity index was 82.32, flat with yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 1.50% from the lowest point of 81.10 on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a fell slightly this week. The market of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is poor, the supporting force for refrigerant R134a is weakened, and the demand for terminal industry is general. Affected by foreign public health events, the export is reduced, and the demand for automobile refrigerant is acceptable. At present, the refrigerant R134a manufacturer has started at a high level, the new production capacity has not been fully put into operation, and the supply in R134a field is tight, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price slightly drops. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of April 5, the market price of refrigerant R134a was concentrated around 21000 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has declined, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined. On April 3, the mainstream price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers in China was 9500-10500 yuan / ton. The factory price of some manufacturers in the field fell. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the field was sufficient, and the market price in the field fell slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 13th week of 2020 (3.30-4.3), there are 9 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (13.17%), propane (4.22%) and dichloromethane (4.00%). There are 52 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 28 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 32.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are crude benzene (- 26.92%), butadiene (- 17.90%) and bisphenol A (- 16.17%). This week’s average was – 3.62%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, the cost side of refrigerant R134a is currently down, and the demand is average. It is expected that the refrigerant R134a market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of mainstream manufacturers on April 3 was 17833.33 yuan / ton, which was 18333.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (30 days), down 2.79% in the week. On April 2, the R22 commodity index was 107.00, down 1 point from yesterday, 3.60% from the highest point in the cycle, 111.00 (2020-02-24), and 28.30% higher than the lowest point, 83.40, on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 in refrigerant market fell this week. The market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is not good, the support for refrigerant R22 is weakened, the demand for terminal air conditioning industry is not good, coupled with the impact of foreign public health events, the export is blocked, the transaction center is shifted down, and the market is weak. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of April 3, the average price of refrigerant R22 is around 17833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation is mainly about 16000 yuan / ton – 19000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has declined, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined. On April 3, the mainstream price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers in China was 9500-10500 yuan / ton. The factory price of some manufacturers in the field fell. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the field was sufficient, and the market price in the field fell slightly. At present, the production of chloroform enterprises in Shandong Province remains normal, the spot supply in the market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream market and traders are short of purchase and demand, which leads to the increasing inventory pressure of enterprises, and the situation that the supply exceeds the demand in the industry is gradually revealed. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 1550 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi Liwen about 2200 yuan / ton, and in Jiangsu about 2700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the refrigerant R22 market has abundant supply, poor downstream demand, and general market transactions. There is no good signal at the raw material end, but supported by quotas, it is expected that the refrigerant R22 will remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, today’s comprehensive market price is 12533.33 yuan / ton, and the domestic PC market continues to decline, with poor transaction atmosphere.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: domestic PC continues to decline, the transaction atmosphere is cold, few price seekers, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. The raw materials fall sharply, and the cost support is weakening, which has a certain impact on the market. Manufacturers actively ship goods, actively give profits, the demand continues to be weak, and the actual transaction is limited.

Industry chain: raw material bisphenol A continues to fall, the surrounding environment is still grim, the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the price continues to fall, and the actual transaction atmosphere is cold.

Industry: on April 1, the rubber and plastic index was 534, down 11 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, down 49.62% from 1060, the highest point on March 14, 2012. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club think: the weak pattern of domestic PC market will continue. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend

Pure benzene fell more than in March, down nearly 50% a month, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On March 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 5100-5500 yuan / ton (average price 5380.2 yuan / ton), and on March 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 2550-3200 yuan / ton (average price 2700 yuan / ton), with a monthly decrease of 49.82%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: in the month, Russia refused to further reduce production, and Saudi Arabia sharply reduced the official price of crude oil in April, and announced to increase its crude oil production in April, opening a deep decline in international oil prices. In the later period, due to the continuous impact of overseas social public events, the world introduced measures to restrict travel, which severely hit oil demand. People predict that global oil demand will drop by more than 10 million barrels per day, and the market is worried about the oversupply of crude oil. Although the governments of many countries have launched economic stimulus plans, the economic activities and fuel demand of many countries are expected to further reduce, and the worry about the sharp decrease of oil demand dominates. Compared with February 28, Brent oil price fell by 32.815 USD / barrel, or 64.99%; WTI oil price fell by 20.43 USD / barrel, or 45.46%.

2. Product: in March, with the resumption of domestic production, the overall operating rate of pure benzene picked up. Although domestic public events have been effectively controlled, large-scale outbreaks abroad have led to a sharp decline in crude oil and related energy chemicals. The downstream demand is weak, and the release of pure benzene capacity is blocked; in addition, the external market plummeted, and the low price hit, and the domestic pure benzene fell seriously. However, crude oil is low in price, with less cost constraints and profit margin. This month Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene seven times, a total of 2750 yuan / ton. Pure benzene, as a product greatly affected by crude oil, has a significant downward trend. The arrival of pure benzene increased this month, and the port inventory accumulated significantly.

3. External market: social public events affected the sharp decline of crude oil, led to a sharp drop in the price of pure benzene in the external market, and had a greater impact on the export of goods sources in Southeast Asia and Europe. In late March, affected by weak downstream demand expectations, factories sold raw materials, and Europe’s pure benzene plummeted, driving Asia’s pure benzene down sharply again. The price of imported pure benzene is low, and the arbitrage window of internal and external market is opened. In March, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell by 336.67 USD / ton, or 55.96%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell by 311 USD / ton, or 50.65%.

4. Downstream: affected by the demand terminal, the downstream product market of pure benzene is weak, the overall operating rate of the enterprise is declining, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the downstream product price is generally down. At the beginning of the month, the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 6700 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, it was 4650 yuan / ton, down 2050 yuan / ton, down 30.6%. The price of aniline was 6666.67 yuan / ton on the first day and 5633.33 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.5%. The price of phenol in China was 7062.5 yuan / ton on the first day and 5387.5 yuan / ton on the 31st day, a decrease of 23.72%. The price of adipic acid in East China was 8080 yuan / ton on the first day and 6480 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.35%. The price of Shandong caprolactam was 10633.33 yuan / ton on the first day and 9000 yuan / ton on the 31st day, down 15.36%.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia may increase crude oil production in April, further affecting the oil price. Oil prices remain low in the short term. But in the later stage, once the social public events are effectively controlled and production resumes, the oil price may have the opportunity to return to the level of the year before.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: foreign pure benzene enters China, and low price supply continues to impact the domestic market. The decline trend of some downstream products is stronger than that of pure benzene, with limited support for pure benzene; and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased.

Overall, the fundamentals are not good, and it is difficult for the short-term pure benzene market to improve substantially.