On June 18, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 18th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 18 days, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has slightly declined. As of 18 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 290-3000 yuan/ton. The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

Price trends:

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: This week, crude benzol prices rose slightly, with the mainstream market offer of 3200-3400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous period. On Tuesday, Sinopec raised its listing price, which led some pure benzene enterprises to follow the price increase. On Wednesday, other enterprises also raised their prices one after another. Market confidence improved, leading to an increase of 70-130 yuan/ton in the tender price of the main domestic crude benzene producing areas. Downstream enterprises followed the increase positively, and the coking enterprises were in a strong tender mood. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation in Shanxi is 3200-3250 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is 3350-3370 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: Oil prices have risen and fallen this week, overall down from last week. Early in the week, there were signs that OPEC and other oil producers might extend the cut-off agreement, but the escalation of trade disputes continued to raise concerns about oil demand growth, with crude oil prices falling sharply. On Thursday, two tankers were attacked and U.S. oil rose rapidly, closing down the increase. Pure Benzene: On Tuesday, Sinopec raised its listing price, leading some pure benzene enterprises to follow the price increase. The rest of the enterprises also raised their prices on Wednesday, and market confidence improved. Hydrobenzene: This week, the market price of hydrobenzene rose slightly. Influenced by Sinopec’s increase in the price of pure benzene, the market of hydrobenzene rose positively, the enthusiasm of downstream entry increased, some pre-parked hydrobenzene units had plans to restart, and the demand on the site was expected to increase. The hydrobenzene market rose significantly, with the market offer rising by about 100-150 yuan/ton. As of Friday, mainstream quotations in East China range from 4500 to 4600 yuan/ton, and Shandong from 4250 to 4300 yuan/ton.

3. Trend forecast:

This week, the crude oil market fell, dragging down the weak operation of the chemical industry chain, the downstream just need to replenish the main, with limited follow-up sentiment, it is expected that the coking industry chain in the latter period will be mainly small shocks, with general fluctuations.

Price trends:

The price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in June, according to data from business associations. As of June 15, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 4800.00 yuan/ton, which was 4633.33 yuan/ton compared with the price quoted by acetic anhydride at the beginning of June. The price increased by 3.60%, and the price fell by 42.60% compared with the price of acetic anhydride last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In June, domestic acetic anhydride ex-factory quotation surged, and the market transaction price rose. As of June 15, most of the region’s ex-factory quotation was 4800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price rose. The actual transaction price in Shandong was about 4700 yuan/ton. The price rose. The market quotation was the reference price, and the actual transaction price was based on actual negotiation. Acetic anhydride factory equipment start-up rate maintained high, acetic anhydride market is general, supply of acetic anhydride is tight, the future market acetic anhydride has an upward momentum.

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

Since June, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, has risen sharply, while the price of methanol has fallen sharply. As of June 15, acetic acid quoted 2866.67 yuan/ton, which was 290 yuan/ton higher than the price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month; the price of methanol dropped sharply in June. As of June 15, the price of methanol quoted 2198.00 yuan/ton, the price of methanol dropped 36.00 yuan/ton in June, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose, which had a positive impact on the market of acetic anhydride, and had a certain upward momentum in the future.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for acetic anhydride in business associations, believes that the price of acetic anhydride raw material acetic acid rose this week and the overall methanol price fell, but the recent price shock of methanol rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the price of acetic anhydride has a certain driving force. Recently, the supply of acetic anhydride is tight, and acetic anhydride has a certain upward momentum. Generally speaking, the market of acetic anhydride is better than bad, the cost of acetic anhydride is rising, the power of acetic anhydride is sufficient, the supply of acetic anhydride is tight, the downstream demand is normal, the overall market of acetic anhydride is better than bad, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to rise in the future.

Commodity Name: Acetone

Market Price (East China June 12): 3000 yuan/ton

Analysis Points: Domestic acetone market is weak and difficult to adjust. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is weak, the on-site holders are unstable, and the enthusiasm for delivery is high, while the terminal factories just need to purchase insufficiently, the volume of actual transaction is limited, and the transaction is scarce. It is estimated that the mainstream negotiation price in the East China market is 3000-3050 yuan/ton; the negotiation range in the surrounding Yanshan market is 3150-3200 yuan/ton; and the mainstream negotiation price in the South China market is around 3100 yuan/ton. Business associations expect acetone to operate in a weak market and fluctuate in an interval.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2576 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and it rose to about 2626 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.94% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2350-2400/ton; in Shandong is about 2550-2700 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2500 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 2750-2850 yuan/ton; and in South China, the quotation is about 2600-2750 yuan/ton. About 52% lower than the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This week, the acetic acid Market in eastern China was affected by the overhaul of enterprises’installations, resulting in a tight spot supply and a sustained increase in the enterprise’s delivery price; how long a single shipment was made by enterprises in North China, the supply of acetic acid was stable and the price of acetic acid was relatively strong; and the Northwest China was affected by factors such as the holidays of Eid al-Fitr, which resulted in a significant decline in enterprise’s inventory and a large price. The price of acetic acid rose slightly in the week because of the overall market climate in central China. In terms of start-up, the overall start-up rate of the industry has decreased before, and the overall rate is about 65%. Huayi Group’s Shanghai and Anhui factories are under maintenance; Soap in Jiangsu Province restarted at the weekend, but it has not yet returned to normal; 1.2 million tons per year of Celanese plant started 50%; 350,000 tons per year of Dalian Hengli plant has begun production, and the time for external sales is waiting. Fixed.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic methanol market declined weakly this week, with an average price of 2228 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2228 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.05% in the week, and a decline of 20.64% over the same period last year. Acetate and vinyl acetate industries, affected by the high price of raw materials acetic acid, increased slightly in the week, but the whole week. The contradiction between physical supply and demand is prominent, profit is maintained on the horizontal line, and it is expected that the latter period will be weak and stable; PTA spot market will decline slightly in the week affected by downstream demand downturn, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is obvious, and the turnover is flat.

International: This week, the North American acetic acid market was affected by the tight supply, which rose slightly in the whole week, currently about 415 US dollars per ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the decline of supply in China and continued to rise in the week, but the overall buying gas was still weak, and the current quotation was 335-400 US dollars per ton; the European acetic acid market was affected by the export of acetic acid from Asia. It has been operating steadily within a week and is currently operating at about $520 per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic acetic acid market spot supply continues to decline, some enterprises have low inventories, supply side temporarily appears a small gap, some traders are active in buying gas, stimulating the rise of enterprises, the overall downstream industry demand is still slightly weak, business community acetic acid data analysis believes that the domestic acetic acid market will be strong in the near future. Rise.