This week, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have declined, with prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal all showing a decline. As of the 6th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.405 million yuan/ton, a 1.06% decrease this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.365 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.925 million yuan/ton, with a 1.03% decline in price trend this week.
The price trend of heavy rare earth market has declined this week due to multiple factors such as weak terminal demand, short-term supply pressure, cooling market sentiment, and external technology substitution expectations.
Supply side: high inventory, poor circulation
The overall heavy rare earth market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory levels that have suppressed prices; In addition, the limited invoicing quota for rare earth trade has led to an increase in transaction costs and a decrease in circulation efficiency, resulting in a situation of “difficult to sell goods with value but no market”, further suppressing market activity. Myanmar is the most important source of heavy rare earths in the world, accounting for about 57% of China’s total rare earth imports. Since 2026, Myanmar’s mineral imports have plummeted by 42% year-on-year. Some ports have restricted customs clearance, directly cutting off the supply of key medium and heavy rare earth raw materials. At the same time, Vietnam has legislated to ban the export of rare earth raw materials since that year, further cutting off external supplementary channels and reducing import sources, resulting in a limited decline in the heavy rare earth market.
Demand side: Downstream enters off-season, with low purchasing willingness
The largest downstream application of heavy rare earths is permanent magnet materials in the fields of new energy vehicles and wind power. The second and third quarters are usually the traditional off-season for the new energy vehicle and wind power industries, resulting in insufficient orders for magnetic material companies and a decrease in operating rates to 60% -65%. Terminal enterprises are suppressing prices, and magnetic material factories generally adopt a conservative strategy of “on-demand procurement and zero inventory”, refusing high prices, resulting in a significant contraction of demand for heavy rare earths. In order to reduce costs, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium in production, further suppressing demand and causing a decline in the heavy rare earth market.
Market forecast: The recent decline in the heavy rare earth market is mainly due to the combined effect of insufficient short-term demand and cooling market sentiment. Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress.
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