1、 Market Review
In the past week (August 12-18), the spot price of PA66 in the market has remained stagnant, with stable quotations. The spot price of Shengyi Society has remained stable at 17833.33 yuan/ton, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 10-90 day cycle is all in the low range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range. After a continuous decline in the early stage, the market downturn slows down, and the market enters the bottom oscillation and bottoming stage; The moving average system has not yet shown a buy signal where the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average, and the short-term trend remains weak.
2、 Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile is sufficient, the industry’s operating load remains high, and the raw material prices lack upward momentum, resulting in weak support for PA66 production costs. The current slicing price has limited space from the industry cost line, and the pressure of manufacturers’ losses is gradually emerging. Some production enterprises have the willingness to reduce production to maintain prices, but the loose pattern of upstream raw materials has not substantially changed, and the cost side is temporarily difficult to drive the rebound and upward trend of PA66 prices.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the overall operating rate of PA66 plants in China is at a relatively high level, with sufficient supply of spot goods. There is still pressure on market circulation and inventory, and there is intense competition among manufacturers for shipment, which poses significant obstacles to actively pushing up prices.
In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have limited capacity to increase production, and traditional downstream order follow-up is weak. Terminal factories mostly insist on on-demand procurement and on-demand procurement, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up in large quantities. They have a strong demand to support the bottom line but lack incremental demand. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and after the market stops falling, it enters a sideways observation period.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the bottom oscillation pattern of the PA66 spot market is likely to continue. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant rebound in the market are not yet met; However, the current price is already in the mid to low range of the year, and the expected reduction in production caused by the losses of production enterprises will provide some support for the downward space. The space for further deep decline is limited, and the price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 17500-18200 yuan/ton, waiting for the release of downstream autumn and winter orders to bring a demand turning point.
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