The market for butadiene rubber has fluctuated and risen significantly. As of August 18th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 14680 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.14% from 13450 yuan/ton at the beginning of August. The cost and supply side provided strong support for butadiene rubber, while weak downstream demand to some extent suppressed the increase in butadiene rubber prices.
At the cost level, the price of raw material butadiene has risen due to equipment maintenance and tightening of spot circulation resources. The production profit of butadiene rubber has been compressed or even turned into a loss, and the cost side has formed a strong support for spot prices. Mainstream petrochemical enterprises have repeatedly raised their ex factory quotations, driving up market offers. As of August 18th, the price of butadiene was 11533 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.14% from 10016 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In terms of supply, the industry has maintained a production range of 74% -75%, with some equipment undergoing maintenance. Coupled with good export performance, domestic social inventory continues to deplete and remains relatively low. Spot resources are tight, easing the pressure of accumulated inventory.
The demand side is still in the traditional off-season, and tire companies have slightly rebounded in production. However, the recovery of the terminal market is limited, and downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials. Multi dimensional on-demand procurement is being held, and large-scale inventory replenishment has not yet been initiated. The demand side has not formed an active upward momentum. As of August 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 64.32%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.01%.
Market forecast:
The spot price and moving average of Shunding rubber showed a sideways trend from late July to early August, with short-term moving averages fluctuating and the long and short forces tending to balance. In mid August, the current price once again hit the short-term moving average, with short-term bulls dominating and there is a driving force to test the high point of the previous rebound. But the medium-term moving average has not yet fully opened upwards, with obvious upward pressure and a lack of unilateral trend conditions. Predict a strong short-term oscillation, with a high probability of encountering resistance and falling back after a surge. Focus on the effectiveness of the moving average support. If it falls below the short-term moving average, the rebound pattern will be disrupted.
Overall, short-term cost drivers dominate, coupled with the approaching golden September and silver October, there is an expectation of tire stocking, and Shunding rubber may maintain strong fluctuations. There is further upward space for spot prices, but the magnitude of the increase is limited. In the medium to long term, we need to be vigilant about the supply increment impact caused by the release of new production capacity in the later stage.
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