1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129116 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.72%.
Macroscopically, the US non farm payroll data for August exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to 66.9%. The strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed risk assets. The situation in the Middle East has repeatedly disturbed market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors continue to dominate short-term fluctuations in nickel prices. Macro pressure resonates with weak fundamentals, limiting the sustainability of nickel price rebound.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s RKAB quota remains at 260 million to 270 million tons, a significant contraction from 379 million tons in 2025. WBN has been approved to increase its quota by 25 million tons in the second half of the year. The IMIP park is expected to reduce production by 40% due to drought, but it has not been verified yet. LME stainless steel “Golden September” peak season has not yet been realized, with high production of 300 series but insufficient release of terminal consumption. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, it is still at a high level. The purchase of ternary precursors for new energy is only necessary, and there is a lack of incremental consumption of nickel sulfate. Both downstream industries are mainly driven by rigid demand, and there is no centralized replenishment drive.
Influencing factors: The pace of the final quota implementation of Indonesia’s RKAB and the execution of IMIP production reduction are key variables. The Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting and subsequent inflation data will affect macroeconomic sentiment. The actual recovery level of demand during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” determines the pace of destocking. The approaching rainy season in the Philippines may provide seasonal support for mining areas.
In summary, this week the nickel market continues to have a weak supply-demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand continuing to suppress prices, and supply disruptions in Indonesia only providing temporary support. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain weakly fluctuating within the range of 127000 to 130000 yuan/ton. In the future, the focus will be on the implementation of Indonesia’s quota policy, the actual execution of IMIP production cuts, and the pace of demand recovery during peak seasons.
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