This week, crude oil and propylene prices have risen strongly, and raw material costs have significantly increased. In addition, the short-term supply increment is still limited, and the industry inventory is still not under pressure. Therefore, acrylonitrile suppliers have maintained overall high prices, and the market has also stopped falling and consolidated as a result. As of September 4th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 11550-11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 11250-11350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant in Jiangsu gradually increased its load, with plans to gradually resume operation of three sets in early September. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520000 tons of acrylonitrile have now recovered to around 90% of its load, and the East China plant is gradually increasing its load; In the northern market, Liaoning’s facilities have gradually restarted and resumed, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has recovered to over 70%, with a significant increase in overall supply. According to statistics, this week (August 28-September 3), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 72.19%, an increase of 4.14% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 84200 tons, which is+0.48 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The increase in supply within the week is temporarily limited, and the inventory of enterprises is still controllable. As of September 2nd, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories is about 50000 tons, which is+0.050 million tons compared to last week.
Limited incremental demand:
This week, the utilization rate of production capacity in major downstream industries has increased and decreased. Among them, the utilization rate of ABS production capacity was 57.5%, which was -1.1% compared to last week, and the East China factory decreased; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 51.25%, which is -0.23% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.87%, an increase of 6.69% compared to last week, and the overall demand for acrylonitrile remained relatively stable.
Cost increase:
During the week, crude oil and propylene prices rose strongly, and raw material costs significantly increased. Acrylonitrile prices remained stable, resulting in a significant decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of September 4th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 9200-9400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 635 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 11808 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 4.34%. The average production profit is -58 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -801 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast: Currently, major factories in East China are gradually increasing negative growth, and overall demand expectations are increasing. However, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand. Although the market downturn has been limited by rising raw material costs in the near future, basic bearish expectations continue to exist, and downstream users are still resistant to high raw material prices. Purchasing enthusiasm is still difficult to improve. However, due to concerns about the impact of cost on long-term supply, the pace of market downturn will still be slow.
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