The price of ethylene oxide remained stable this month, with the national ex factory price ranging from 7200 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory tax inclusive price of mainstream East China was 7200 yuan / ton.

Ethylene prices rose this month, some ethylene oxide plants were overhauled, and the supply side was tight. However, the weakness of the downstream unit market is hard to hide, and the manufacturers are under pressure to deliver goods. Some manufacturers reduce the price of goods to reduce the inventory pressure brought by the long holiday. The market of ethylene glycol is weakening, many units are put into operation and the downstream demand is gradually lower in the later stage. Under the double impact of supply and demand, the market center of gravity moves down slightly.

On the whole, although the cost support is strong, the demand is low, which makes it difficult to adjust the price of ethylene oxide before the festival. People in the industry are cautious and the market atmosphere is strong.

Temporary stability, need to pay close attention to the downstream market.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

On September 24, the market of lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of September 24, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with September 1, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of business club’s bulk list. Large lithium hydroxide manufacturers have stable shipment, and the demand for lithium hydroxide has increased in the third quarter, but the inventory pressure is still on. At present, the market is mainly running smoothly without obvious fluctuation.

Production data of lithium hydroxide: in August 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was around 863 tons, up 3.6% month on month and 1.93% lower than the same period last year.

As for upstream lithium carbonate, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton as of September 23, up 1.54% compared with last Monday (September 14) and 1.25% lower than that at the beginning of the month; on September 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, up 0.68% compared with last Monday (September 14) and the beginning of the month It was down 1.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate has risen slightly in the near future, the cost side has certain support, and the downstream demand growth is fair, but the market inventory is still at a high level, and it is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term.

According to the data of the commodity list of business society, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is 1016.67 yuan / ton in recent years, and the current price is up 18.22% on a month basis, and the current price is down 22.98% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price has been stable. As of September 23, the main factory quotation in Central China was about 960 yuan / ton, the price of the mainstream manufacturers in North China was 825 yuan / T, and that of the mainstream in East China was 1020 yuan / ton. The formaldehyde production capacity of Linyi Galaxy in Shandong Province is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde factory in Shandong Province has been started normally. The atmosphere of the trading and investment in the field is flat and light, the actual single transaction is general, and the formaldehyde market is stable.

Upstream methanol situation: the methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1800 yuan / ton of cash out of stock exchange, while the price of peripheral goods negotiation is stable at 1640-1650 yuan / ton to cash exchange, and the transaction is expected to be low or low. The price of methanol market in southern Shandong Province fell 30 yuan / T to 1750 yuan / ton cash exchange nearby. Some of them can be negotiated. Linyi receives local goods of 1720-1740 yuan / ton to be delivered to the place without tax, and the logistics goods offer is not much. Downstream enterprises are close to the end of receiving goods, and the market delivery is weak. The guiding price of Shandong methanol North Shandong market is 1650 yuan / ton sent to cash exchange, and it is expected to be completed or will be carried out around this price.

Recently, a new round of environmental protection inspection has begun in Northern Jiangsu Province, which has resulted in tightening of the local downstream wood board factory. Formaldehyde procurement is required mainly, and the investment atmosphere is flat. Formaldehyde enterprises generally shipped, the actual single negotiation slightly fluctuated, the market continued smoothly.

Recently, methanol from upstream raw materials has declined in a narrow range, cost support is not strong, while terminal starts weak. Generally speaking, the formaldehyde market is generally traded. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of chemical branch of business society expect that the domestic formaldehyde price will mainly fall slightly in the near future.

On the afternoon of 22nd, the center of gravity of the domestic acetone market went down, and the overall wide adjustment fell a lot. Some negotiations have already dropped to less than 7000 yuan / ton, and there is no lack of position price of 6800 yuan / ton in the offer. After the centralized reduction of 200 yuan / ton by factories yesterday and the weekend, market confidence was also significantly lower. Before the festival, cargo holders made profits and actively shipped goods, and many status offers frequently appeared in the market. However, in the case of insufficient terminal purchase, supply pressure increased and trading was scarce. In addition, under the influence of the international oil price, there are still many negative factors, and the low price shipping intention is relatively large. It is estimated that the acetone market will be mainly operated in a weak way, and the market negotiation is expected to be around 6800 yuan / ton. As of the end of the previous trading day, the offers of acetone in various markets across the country were as follows:

Regional price rise and fall

East China 6950 – 350

7200 – 50 in Shandong

Around Yanshan mountain, 7300

7050 – 100 in South China

The international crude oil price rebounded after the overall bottom stabilized, but the upward range was limited. In addition, the domestic oil product price decreased on September 18, and the domestic oil product market rose slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on September 18 was 5529 yuan / ton, up 0.56% compared with the beginning of the week; on September 18, the price of diesel oil was 4875 yuan / ton, up 1.64% from the beginning of the week.

Affected by the hurricane, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region declined for a short time. EIA data showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased significantly, stimulating the rebound of international crude oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil and faced the risk of a second outbreak in the world, resulting in weak market demand and limited increase in international oil prices.

In terms of gasoline demand, near the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, residents’ driving trips increased and gasoline consumption performed well. However, the decline of domestic refined oil limited the upward trend of gasoline market price. In terms of diesel demand, entering the “golden nine silver ten” peak demand season, diesel demand in engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries is supported, and the fishing moratorium is over, which has a certain driving effect on diesel demand, and the domestic gasoline price rises slightly.

On September 11, the average operating load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%, and the refinery operating load decreased slightly by 1%. The domestic oil product supply was relatively sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil market has stabilized and rebounded, but the crude oil price has not been reflected sufficiently; in addition, the domestic oil product price has been lowered on Friday (September 18), and the refined oil price is expected to decline steadily.