According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 6, the comprehensive price of PC market was 27800.00 yuan / ton. The price of PC market continued to move at a high level, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period of this month, the price increased by 5.84%, up to 1600 yuan / ton.

The domestic PC market fluctuated and went up, the price continued to be high, the raw material bisphenol a market still went up, the PC cost formed a certain support, the price continued to rise, the overall market transaction atmosphere was cautious, the industry held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, appeared reluctant to sell psychology, it is expected that the PC market will still maintain the upward trend in the next week, manufacturers passively support the price, difficult to have a downward trend.

The price of upstream bisphenol a continued to rise, and there was still a rising trend expectation. The reference price was 27800-28000 yuan / ton, the inventory remained low, and the supply side was tight. On April 6, the commodity index of bisphenol A was 265.69, up 5.52 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 268.55% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now).

Business community PC analysts believe that: raw materials continue to rise, PC cost support strong, short-term upward trend. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of goods, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene stopped falling this week and the price showed an upward trend. On March 28, the price of pure benzene was 5953-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6280 yuan / ton); on Sunday (April 4), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6520 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 240 yuan / ton or 3.82% compared with last week, and 169.42% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, pure benzene continued to follow the trend of styrene, and the price rose. The price of EPS, PS and ABS in the downstream of styrene recovered, the price of styrene also rose rapidly, and the price of pure benzene rose along with the trend. During the week, Petronas and Japan’s ENEOS units were shut down, and the price of pure benzene in Asia rose, supporting the domestic pure benzene market. This week, East China port inventory continued to decline, is still in the channel to the warehouse. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton, and the listed price of some refineries in North China increased by 300 yuan / ton to 6450 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Thursday (April 1) was 856.67 US dollars / ton, up 38.34 US dollars / ton or 4.69% from March 26, and the reference price of import in East China was 865 US dollars / ton, up 35.5 US dollars / ton or 4.28% from March 26.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Downstream: styrene: the sharp drop in crude oil helped styrene fall to near the cash flow. With strong support from the cost side, the price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded. With strong expectation from the cost side, short supply at the end of the month, goods preparation during the Qingming holiday and tight spot supply in April, the market bull confidence was boosted and the price of styrene rebounded. On April 4, the price of sample enterprises was 9016.67 yuan / ton, up 7.77% from last week, and 91.84% from the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline stopped rising and turned down this week. The price of downstream polymerization MDI fell, the profit margin narrowed, the resistance to high price aniline was strong, and the follow-up was general. In addition, a 200000 t / a plant in Jinling Dongying will be restarted, and the 100000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying Huatai will be restarted soon, so the market supply is expected to increase. Market participants were short of outlook, and aniline prices fell during the week. On April 4, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 13000-13500 yuan / ton, down 7.14% from last week and up 143.75% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, although OPEC + decided to increase production, the market is still optimistic about the future demand prospect of oil market, and crude oil inventory may gradually enter the process of depolarization in the second quarter. Biden’s Government previously launched a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and is currently brewing $2.3 trillion in infrastructure stimulus measures. With the acceleration of vaccination in Europe, the economy will gradually enter the recovery track.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: from the supply side, in April, domestic styrene factories had more maintenance, and the new production capacity will be offset by the reduced production capacity. Domestic supply may increase limited, and the pressure is not big. In addition, the import volume of terminals will maintain the low level of the contract. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of the downstream is acceptable, and the demand for styrene remains rigid, but the demand side has not recovered. Crude oil is still expected to pick up in the later stage, pure benzene in the cost side is basically good, ethylene is temporarily stable, styrene cost support is acceptable, and styrene is expected to continue to run with strong oscillation in the short term.

In the later stage, the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port is still limited, the port is still in the channel of destocking, the enterprise inventory is not high, and the pressure of shipment is not high. Short term pure benzene is expected to follow crude oil, styrene market fluctuations. With the entrance of new styrene plant, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market showed an upward trend in March. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of March 31, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 8716.67 yuan / ton, which was 15.20% higher than that on March 1, 19.95% higher than that on March 1, and 62.42% higher than that on the same period last year.

In the first ten days of March, the supply side of manufacturers was tight, the downstream enterprises started to recover gradually, the demand gradually improved, and the price went up. However, as the price rose to a high level, the downstream was cautious about high price, mainly purchasing on demand, and the market was stable. In the middle of the month, the atmosphere of new orders in the market was weak, sales were under pressure, and the market was weak With multiple support of replenishment demand, the market has a strong rising atmosphere, and the market is strong and upward.

For upstream urea, in March 2021, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose. In March, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong fell from 2183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2070.00 yuan / ton on March 15, down 5.19%, and then rose to 2170.00 yuan / ton on March 31, up 4.83%.. On the whole, the urea market in Shandong fell slightly in March.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea fell in April, and the cost support was slightly weak. However, the manufacturers, with the support of orders received in advance, were able to take delivery of the products. It is expected that the domestic melamine market may be high in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in raw material prices and market information guidance.

Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the ABS market was first depressed and then rose in March, and the spot price position fell as a whole. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 18300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.14% compared with the average price level in early March, and a rise of 68.66% compared with the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

After the upstream styrene entered March, the chemical industry sector showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The advantages of the early crude oil surge and the tight supply caused by external emergencies were exhausted, and the styrene price fell this month. In addition, the macro inflation and the expected increase of domestic demand in the early stage are still acting on the market. In addition, the recent device maintenance and replenishment at the end of the month, although the long and short struggle, but still stop falling in the last ten days and began to rebound, it is expected that styrene will be slightly stronger in the short term.

Compared with styrene, butadiene, on the other hand, went out of the opposite market. In the first half of this month, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level with a positive trend. At the end of this month, the spot price suddenly fell. In the early stage, the international crude oil price continued to rise, which saved the butadiene market at the beginning of the new year. In March, we heard that the export of domestic products increased, which strengthened the market confidence. The supply of goods continued to warm up and reached a critical point at the end of the month, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand. Merchants actively ship goods, and the market mentality tends to be short-term bearish. Butadiene is expected to continue to decline in the near future, looking for market equilibrium.

At present, the price of ABS at the cost side fluctuates. The spot price of ABS continues to fall in the first half of this month, and rebounds in the second half of this month. In March, the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises was high, and the plant was close to full load operation. In terms of supply, the domestic production of ABS this month is more than 360000 tons, and the supply on site is relatively abundant. The market competition is strengthened, and the buyer’s resistance to high price goods is increased. In addition, the price position of ABS was higher due to the favorable situation in the upstream, the downstream factories just needed to operate the replenishment, the demand kinetic energy was insufficient, and the social inventory began to rise. But gradually entering the peak demand season, the home appliance industry began to make efforts in the latter half of the year, stabilizing the demand side of ABS, and the spot price immediately stopped falling and rebounded.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS market fell at a high level in March, and recovered at the end of the month. The trend of cost side is different, and the support for ABS cost side is general. The continuous high opening rate eased the tight supply side in the early stage, and the current spot supply has warmed up. Downstream factories maintain rigid demand procurement, and the demand has increased at the end of the month. However, judging from the market performance this week, the resistance of downstream factories to high price supply is still heavy. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic ABS price will remain stable.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.00, down 1.37 points from yesterday, down 61.00% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in the first quarter of 2021, natural rubber showed a trend of rise and fall, and February 25 was the watershed of this round of market. Among them, from January to February 25, natural rubber fluctuated upward, especially after the Spring Festival holiday to February 25, natural rubber domestic all latex (Baodao) rose from 13000 yuan / ton to 16287 yuan / ton, up by 25%; then, affected by about four times of downward shocks of crude oil, natural rubber, as a futures commodity, weakened, and by March 31, the downward range was as high as 19.25% About 13150 yuan / ton of rubber is reported. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 16287 yuan / ton on February 25, breaking through 16000 yuan / ton, which was the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017.

Natural rubber was obviously affected by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil in this quarter: the sharp rise from February 18 to 25 was also due to the sharp rise of crude oil. On the basis of the lowest annual supply of natural rubber and the gradual recovery of downstream construction, natural rubber rose sharply driven by the upsurge of market atmosphere; also due to the guidance of crude oil, crude oil prices experienced three sharp rises in March Diving, respectively, on the 9th, 18th and 23rd, natural rubber fell about 14%.

However, due to a small amount of tapping in the main natural rubber producing areas in China, although the official tapping was delayed due to severe insect pests in Yunnan, the weather in Hainan this year is good, and some of them have been tapping. Although the quantity is small, under the following good weather, a large number of domestic new rubber may be launched in the middle and late April. Although the main production areas in Southeast Asia still stop cutting season, it is not far away from the opening of new rubber for more than a month. The market is increasingly worried about the new rubber listing, and the confidence is frustrated. The market of natural rubber is obviously weakening.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the purchasing situation of downstream factories has improved in the near future. From the perspective of tire enterprises, data statistics show that in the third week of March, as of March 25, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 78.03%, up 0.34% from the previous week, up 13.74% from the same period last year; the starting load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.35% from the previous week, up 10.62% from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile data, the average daily retail sales of passenger car market in the third week of March reached 46000 units, which was 5% higher than that in the third week of March 2019, and the performance was relatively good; the first three weeks of March this year were basically the same as that in 2019. However, compared with the first three weeks of January, the trend is relatively weak. The haze and sandstorm weather in North China in mid March is expected to stimulate sales growth again. However, recently, the global automobile industry chain has been affected by the “core shortage” all over the world. For example, as of the 31st, due to the lack of chips, Weilai automobile Hefei plant stopped its seven day automobile production; Tesla Model Y’s price has increased by 8000 yuan due to the “core shortage”; moreover, many automobile enterprises have also faced the shutdown since the second half of last year. Of course, some auto companies in China have started to develop chips on their own. BYD has started to develop chips since 2005. Geely, great wall, Wuling and other state-owned auto companies have also started to develop chips on their own. However, according to the prediction of market research institutions, the shortage of automotive chips will not be eased until the second half of 2021. During this period, the production of automotive enterprises will be affected, and the demand for raw rubber will also be affected.

In terms of inventory, as of March 26, the total inventory of the previous period was 175902 tons (+ 900), and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 170920 tons (+ 300), both of which increased. As of March 21, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to drop slightly, but the inventory outside the zone picked up, mainly due to the slow down of delivery after the downstream took the goods the week before. Due to the low overseas production and the high operating rate of domestic tire factories, it is expected that in the short term, going to the warehouse can still be maintained.

From a policy perspective, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing the rubber price, the Thai rubber authority has taken new measures, the most important of which is the fresh latex management project. Rubber Research Institute of Thailand cooperates with universities to develop the matching technology of latex preservation, which aims to improve the shelf life of fresh latex from 4-5 days to 1-2 months. In this way, rubber farmers do not have to rush to sell all the fresh latex at one time, so that there will not be too many goods pouring into the market, and the raw material supply of the processing plant in the low production period can be guaranteed. The Thai government will set up centralized storage tanks for latex and provide financial subsidies for rubber farmers. The goal is to withdraw more than 200000 tons of latex from the market. In addition, the Thai rubber bureau also launched a more mobile sales mechanism for cup rubber, and set a market reference standard for cigarette film, so as to help the smooth operation of the price system of various rubber types.

With regard to the future market, the business community believes that in the short term, the market has a strong worry about the new rubber market after cutting, which has a greater impact on the market. At the same time, the severe epidemic prevention situation in foreign countries, weak demand and the shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises are also affected by multiple factors, such as the transmission factor of crude oil affected by more interference factors, the trend of shock, and the supporting role of natural rubber Insufficient, weak market. In the short term, we are still wary of the transmission effect of the substantial change of crude oil on natural rubber. From the middle and late of next month, we are wary of the significant impact of the new rubber on the market.